How Big Was Obama's Jewish Win?

GOP and Democrats Spar Over Dip in Support From 2008

Parsing the Vote: President Barack Obama won a slightly smaller share of the Jewish vote in 2012, compared to last time, polls suggest. But what does it all mean?
getty images
Parsing the Vote: President Barack Obama won a slightly smaller share of the Jewish vote in 2012, compared to last time, polls suggest. But what does it all mean?

By Nathan Guttman

Published November 07, 2012, issue of November 16, 2012.
  • Print
  • Share Share
  • Single Page

It is a time-honored post-Election Day Jewish tradition.

As in years past, Republicans and Democrats dove into the numbers Wednesday in hopes finding data confirming that they won the elections — or at least put up a good fight.

For Republicans, any number indicating a Jewish shift toward their party is magnified; Democrats, on the other hand, seek to prove that these shift are merely marginal and the Jewish vote remains firmly in their grasp.

As the 2012 election results began to sink in, Jewish Republicans and Democrats disagreed not only about the meaning of the Jewish voting data, but also about the numbers themselves. Republicans view the outcome as a dramatic boost of 10% in Jewish support for their party, while Democrats are looking at numbers that put the shift of Jewish vote at only 4%. That, they argue, is virtually in line with the drop President Barack Obama suffered with all key Democratic constituencies compared to 2008.

And both have the numbers, piles and piles of numbers, to prove their point.

Sifting through the polling data makes clear that two key points remain undisputed. First, Jewish Americans are strongly committed to the Democratic side and stood out in their support for President Obama. The second fact is that there is a modest trend of shifting Jewish votes toward the Republican side and the 2012 elections continued this trend.

Beyond this point, everything gets hazy enough to stump the likes of Nate Silver, let alone a regular voter without a degree in statistics.

Exit polls conducted by a joint media consortium on election day found that 69% of Jewish voters sided with Obama and 30% chose Romney. 1% registered their vote as “other.” By all counts these results show a drop in Jewish support for Obama from 2008. But just how big was the drop?


The Jewish Daily Forward welcomes reader comments in order to promote thoughtful discussion on issues of importance to the Jewish community. In the interest of maintaining a civil forum, The Jewish Daily Forwardrequires that all commenters be appropriately respectful toward our writers, other commenters and the subjects of the articles. Vigorous debate and reasoned critique are welcome; name-calling and personal invective are not. While we generally do not seek to edit or actively moderate comments, our spam filter prevents most links and certain key words from being posted and The Jewish Daily Forward reserves the right to remove comments for any reason.





Find us on Facebook!
  • Wanted: Met Council CEO.
  • “Look, on the one hand, I understand him,” says Rivka Ben-Pazi, a niece of Elchanan Hameiri, the boy that Henk Zanoli saved. “He had a family tragedy.” But on the other hand, she said, “I think he was wrong.” What do you think?
  • How about a side of Hitler with your spaghetti?
  • Why "Be fruitful and multiply" isn't as simple as it seems:
  • William Schabas may be the least of Israel's problems.
  • You've heard of the #IceBucketChallenge, but Forward publisher Sam Norich has something better: a #SoupBucketChallenge (complete with matzo balls!) Jon Stewart, Sarah Silverman & David Remnick, you have 24 hours!
  • Did Hamas just take credit for kidnapping the three Israeli teens?
  • "We know what it means to be in the headlines. We know what it feels like when the world sits idly by and watches the news from the luxury of their living room couches. We know the pain of silence. We know the agony of inaction."
  • When YA romance becomes "Hasidsploitation":
  • "I am wrapping up the summer with a beach vacation with my non-Jewish in-laws. They’re good people and real leftists who try to live the values they preach. This was a quality I admired, until the latest war in Gaza. Now they are adamant that American Jews need to take more responsibility for the deaths in Gaza. They are educated people who understand the political complexity, but I don’t think they get the emotional complexity of being an American Jew who is capable of criticizing Israel but still feels a deep connection to it. How can I get this across to them?"
  • “'I made a new friend,' my son told his grandfather later that day. 'I don’t know her name, but she was very nice. We met on the bus.' Welcome to Israel."
  • A Jewish female sword swallower. It's as cool as it sounds (and looks)!
  • Why did David Menachem Gordon join the IDF? In his own words: "The Israel Defense Forces is an army that fights for her nation’s survival and the absence of its warriors equals destruction from numerous regional foes. America is not quite under the threat of total annihilation… Simply put, I felt I was needed more in Israel than in the United States."
  • Leonard Fein's most enduring legacy may be his rejection of dualism: the idea that Jews must choose between assertiveness and compassion, between tribalism and universalism. Steven M. Cohen remembers a great Jewish progressive:
  • BREAKING: Missing lone soldier David Menachem Gordon has been found dead in central Israel. The Ohio native was 21 years old.
  • from-cache

Would you like to receive updates about new stories?




















We will not share your e-mail address or other personal information.

Already subscribed? Manage your subscription.