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In the ultra-Orthodox settlements, the overwhelming majority of the votes (95 percent in Modi’in Illit, for example) went to the ultra-Orthodox parties: Torah Judaism and Shas. In the mostly secular settlements, the voting pattern, unsurprisingly, is a tad to the right of the national voting pattern.
Most interesting, however, is the voting pattern among ideological settlers, the dynamo of the West Bank settlement movement. There, the extreme right reigns supreme.
In ultra-radical settlements near Nablus and Hebron, the leading party is the Kahanist Otzmah Le-Israel (Might to Israel). This extremist party, which nationally did not meet the 2 percent threshold to make it into the Knesset, was almost uniformly one of the three largest parties in ideological settlements. In Yitzhar, it received 72 percent of the vote, in Tapuah 30 percent, in Kiryat Arba 28 percent and in Elon Moreh 27 percent. Even in the less radical national-religious settlements, this party’s showing is typically in the double digits (24 percent in Shiloh, 14 percent in Karnei Shomron and 13 percent in Kedumim).
In the less radical ideological settlements, unsurprisingly, the big winner is Naftali Bennet’s Habayit Hayehudi (The Jewish Home), the extreme right-wing current incarnation of the National-Religious Party. In Kedumim, it gets 70 percent of the vote, in Ofra 74 percent, in Eli 71 percent, in Psagot 78 percent and in Elon Moreh 55 percent. Nationally, Bennet’s party got 9 percent of the vote.
In almost all the ideological settlements, Habayit Hayehudi and Otzmah Le-Israel, combined, receive between eighty and ninety percent of the vote.
Most strikingly, Likud trails far behind with 5 percent (Matityahu, Yitzhar), 8% (Beit El, Hagai), 11 percent (Kedumim, Ofrah), 12 percent (Psagot) or 13 percent (Elon Moreh) of the ideological settlers.
What can we learn from this pattern? First, it reaffirms that the ideological settlers’ worldview differs greatly from that of most Israelis. Second, it shows that the ideological settlers are extremely successful in creating an image of having a larger electoral footprint than they actually have. Third, it shows how successful they were at manipulating Likud. In the past few years, ideological setters registered in droves as members of Likud’s Party Center, acquiring the right to vote in the party primaries. That, to a large extent, explains the strong showing of extremist pro-settlement Likud leaders in last November’s primaries and the rejection of relative moderates such as Dan Meridor. Fourth, we learn that while the settlers worked hard to shape the makeup of Likud’s Knesset list, they ended up following their heart and voting for extreme right-wing parties. Lastly, one should keep in mind that numerically, the ideological settlers’ vote is a drop in the bucket — maybe two or three percent — of Israel’s overall electorate. They may be a very well-mobilized, influential pressure group, but a small group as well.
Netanyahu should keep all that in mind as he finds himself under pressure from President Obama and from Yair Lapid to tackle the settlements in pursuit of peace.
Ori Nir, formerly the Forward’s Washington correspondent, is the spokesman for Americans for Peace Now.