Dramatic decline in Arab American support for Biden could benefit Trump, new poll shows
President Joe Biden on a solidarity visit to Israel, on Oct. 18, 2023. Photo by Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
By Jacob Kornbluh October 31, 2023
Arab American support for President Joe Biden’s reelection bid has plummeted in recent weeks in response to his steadfast support of Israel in its war against Hamas, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
The Arab American Institute survey of 500 Arab American voters showed that only 17% would vote for Biden, compared to 59% in 2020. The Democratic president’s approval rating also saw a steep decline among these voters, falling from 74% in 2020 to 29%. The poll, conducted between Oct. 23 and 27 via web, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
While the poll indicates that support for former President Donald Trump (40%) has risen since 2020, it also shows that most Arab American Biden voters haven’t warmed to him. Trump’s share of their support increased by only 5% since the 2020 presidential election. In response to the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack on Israel, which killed more than 1,400 people, including at least 33 Americans, Trump pledged to reinstate his controversial travel ban, which targeted mostly Muslim countries, if reelected.
Nonetheless, flagging support for the Democratic nominee and the possibility that many Arab and Muslim Americans may sit the election out could benefit Trump, the frontrunner in the Republican presidential primary. Muslim Americans are a crucial voting bloc in key battleground states like Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
The dissatisfaction with Biden comes at a time of growing criticism on the left of Biden’s endorsement of Israel as it targets Hamas in the Gaza Strip, a campaign that has killed more than 8,000 Palestinians, according to Hamas officials. Biden has refused to call for a cease-fire as demanded by many progressive, Muslim and Arab Americans.
Democratic dilemma
“His numbers are dangerously low, more so than I’ve ever seen for a Democratic candidate for president,” said pollster James Zogby, president and co-founder of the Arab American Institute. “We have never seen this kind of flip in such a short period of time where people aren’t even ready to identify as Democrats anymore.”
The poll showed that 23% of Arab Americans identify with the Democratic Party. Support for third party candidates is at 17%, and 25% say they are not sure who they will vote for next year.
While dwindling support among Arab Americans may impact Biden’s support in key battleground states, a shift towards the president among Orthodox Jewish voters could make up for the gap in states like Pennsylvania, Virginia and Ohio.
The survey also showed that two-thirds of Arab Americans disapprove of Biden’s response to the Middle East conflict and oppose an aid package to bolster Israel’s military capabilities. A recent Quinnipiac survey found that 59% of Democrats approve of the package.
Eight out of 10 respondents also expressed concerns that the ongoing war will result in an increase in anti-Arab bigotry, while 67% are worried about a rise in antisemitism.
The poll didn’t measure support for Biden in the Democratic primary. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, who is Jewish, launched his campaign last week for the Democratic presidential nomination.
This post was updated.
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