Could U.S. voters living in Israel swing the election?
Republican and Democrat activist says interest has never been higher among expats. But voting from overseas is complicated.
Volunteers with Democrats Abroad Israel canvassing for votes recently in Jerusalem’s heavily Anglo Baka neighborhood. Courtesy of Democrats Abroad Israel
JERUSALEM — The questions pouring in to volunteers trying to mobilize American voters in Israel reflect an unusual level of interest in Tuesday’s election — and the perennial level of confusion about the intricate rules of casting a ballot from overseas.
Can I use A4 paper to print my ballot, or do I need to find 8.5 x 11? (A4 is fine.) What if part of the ballot doesn’t fit? (It’s OK to cut off the border design, as long as all the text is there.) Can I drop my ballot at the embassy? (Not anymore.)
“My volunteers are helping voters navigate a system that is incredibly complex and logistically impossible because we have to abide by different rules in 51 jurisdictions,” explained Marc Zell, whose law firm in downtown Jerusalem is doubling as the headquarters for Republican Overseas Israel, where phones were ringing off the hook on Sunday.
“Many people asked what they should do if they’d requested a ballot but didn’t get it yet.” noted Lauri Donahue, a volunteer with the rival group, Democrats Abroad Israel. “There are several options.”
Israel has fourth largest number of voters abroad
The Federal Voting Assistance Program estimates that there are 147,000 eligible American voters living in Israel, making it the fourth largest expatriate community, behind Canada, the United Kingdom and France. The group counts a total of 2.2 million potential overseas ballots this year; in 2020, the average overseas voting rate was 7.8% (5% in Israel).
But Zell, who has headed the Republican effort in Israel for four decades, is hoping for much more. He said his group has already contacted more than 300,000 potential voters, and that engagement in the U.S. election is intense because of the Hamas Oct. 7 terror attack, the ensuing war and a sense that the outcome could be pivotal for Israel’s future.
“There’s no comparison,” he said. “I’ve never seen anything like this.”
While some 60% to 70% of American Jews have generally supported Democrats for president, political experts say the ratio has been reversed among Americans living in Israel in recent elections, with former President Donald Trump garnering some three quarters of ballots cast in Israel in 2020 and 2016.
The Israel Democracy Institute released a poll Monday showing that 65% of Israelis think Trump would be better for Israel’s interests, versus 13% who said Vice President Kamala Harris is better, and another 15% see no difference. The poll did not focus on American-Israelis or ask who people would vote for.
While Zell’s group also boasts 50 team captains spread throughout the country, and a few paid phone-bankers, Democrats Abroad Israel said it is relying on a relative handful of volunteers.
Donahue, who is also an occasional contributor to the Forward, said the Democratic group has also seen a huge surge in interest in this year’s election. Nearly all the people the group contacted last week said they’d already cast their ballots, she said.
“The cutest thing was when 18-year-old American girls studying in yeshiva programs came to us and said their grandmothers had made them promise to vote,” Donahue said.
There is no official breakdown of where American voters living in Israel are registered, but Zell said that in prior elections, the breakdown was about half in New York. Among swing states, he said perhaps 9% of Israeli expat voters are registered in Pennsylvania, 8% in Michigan, 5% in Ohio and 2% in Wisconsin.
Voting can be more complicated
Organizations like Democrats Abroad Israel, Republicans Overseas Israel, and iVote Israel, which describes itself as non-partisan, have stepped up efforts this year to guide voters through the complexities of absentee voting.
Until early October, U.S. citizens in Israel could drop off ballots at the U.S. embassy or consulate, to be sent via diplomatic pouch to election offices in the United States. In the weeks since, voters have had to to rely on mail and courier services: a process complicated by the fact that many commercial airlines have reduced or suspended flights to Israel because of the war.
The shipping company DHL-Israel is offering a 30% discount for ballots. Zell, the Republican activist, said he knows of some voters who have purchased airline tickets to personally transport their ballots back to the U.S.
The absentee voting process involves multiple steps. First, U.S. citizens need to register by submitting a Federal Post Card Application (FPCA)—a requirement that must be repeated each election cycle—with proof of identity, such as a passport number. Following registration, voters must request a ballot before their state’s deadline. (They vary widely.) If the ballot doesn’t arrive in time, voters must either follow up with their election office or submit a federal write-in absentee ballot.
Voters whose ballots do show up as planned must return them by a specific deadline, which can also vary by state. Some states allow ballots to be submitted via email, fax, or online portals. “In other states, including Ohio, where I vote, you have to return a paper ballot,” Donahue noted. “That means you have to print it out — and not everyone has a printer these days.”
The final stage involves mailing the ballot, which often requires following strict instructions. Many states mandate that ballots be placed in multiple envelopes, each labeled precisely. A small mistake, such as entering the wrong date, can risk invalidating the ballot.
Chaya Houpt, who also volunteers with Democrats Abroad, said that “they might have trouble knowing how to copy-paste their signatures, for example.”
Nevertheless, Houpt reported high levels of engagement, noting that calls to voters in swing states revealed “a lot of enthusiasm—people had already sent in their ballots and were completely on top of things.”
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