National Exit Poll: 68% Jewish Vote for Obama
Josh Nathan-Kazis November 7, 2012
National exit polls are now saying that 68% of Jews voted for Obama – ten points behind the president’s performance in these polls four years ago.
Once again, the night is young, and these figures could move. Few expect Obama to hold on to the 74% of the Jewish vote he won in 2008. The question is how many Jewish votes he’ll drop, and whether any of that change will have an impact on the actual outcome of the election.
Earlier in the night, exit polls report that 66% of Florida Jews voted for Obama.
These figures are likely based on a very small sample, and likely have a very high margin of error. (We’re looking at this on the CNN site, which doesn’t seem to indicate either the sample size or the margin of error.) That presumably large margin of error could explain why the same poll, in response to a different question, finds that 70% of white Jews voted for Obama.
That could mean that Black and Hispanic Jews voted overwhelmingly for Romney. Much more likely it means that this exit poll doesn’t tell us much.
In 2008, exit polls didn’t question enough Jews in Florida to break down the proportion of Florida Jewish voters who voted for Obama and McCain. Nationally, exit polls found that 74% of Jews voted for Obama in 2008.
This is a moment of great uncertainty. Here’s what you can do about it.
We hope you appreciated this article. Before you go, we’d like to ask you to please support the Forward’s independent Jewish news this Passover. All donations are being matched by the Forward Board - up to $100,000.
This is a moment of great uncertainty for the news media, for the Jewish people, and for our sacred democracy. It is a time of confusion and declining trust in public institutions. An era in which we need humans to report facts, conduct investigations that hold power to account, tell stories that matter and share honest discourse on all that divides us.
With no paywall or subscriptions, the Forward is entirely supported by readers like you. Every dollar you give this Passover is invested in the future of the Forward — and telling the American Jewish story fully and fairly.
The Forward doesn’t rely on funding from institutions like governments or your local Jewish federation. There are thousands of readers like you who give us $18 or $36 or $100 each month or year.
Support our mission to tell the Jewish story fully and fairly.
