A daring attack on Hezbollah may reveal Israel’s strengths — and its most terrifying weakness
People gathered at the entrance of the American University of Beirut Medical Center on Tuesday, after Hezbollah members’ pagers exploded in what appeared to be a coordinated attack that killed at least nine. Photo by Anwar Amro/AFP via Getty Images
Columnist Dan Perry September 17, 2024
A sophisticated Tuesday attack that hit Hezbollah fighters’ pagers in Lebanon is a stark reminder of the technological prowess — and best-in-the-world intelligence — Israel still wields. (Hezbollah blamed the attack on Israel; the IDF has so far not commented.) For many Israelis, it’s a needed occasion for pride — rare in recent months — as the beleaguered nation showcases its brilliant military abilities.
But it could come at a steep price, complicating a moment when the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is recklessly considering firing his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, over political calculations.
The pager attacks can be seen as a message to Hezbollah that there is a price to pay for its provocations; Israel issued a Monday warning that it was musing over a potential escalation in its efforts against the paramilitary group. For almost a year, Hezbollah has been firing rockets, shells and drones toward Northern Israel, testing its patience and red lines and causing some 60,000 residents to be evacuated from its northern communities. If Israel is indeed behind the attacks, as everyone assumes, this signals that the country’s relative restraint in responding to Hezbollah has its limits, and a broader conflict may be imminent.
In the best-case scenario, the attack, which killed at least nine and injured more than 2,800, may serve as a deterrent. Hezbollah, whose arsenal includes tens of thousands of rockets, could be rethinking whether provoking Israel into an all-out war is in its best interest.
But if Hezbollah miscalculates and responds with an escalation of its own, Israel could be pushed to make the painful but strategic decision to enter southern Lebanon, aiming to create a buffer zone free of Hezbollah presence with minimal endangerment to civilian lives. Re-occupying that territory — which Israel held for almost two decades before withdrawing in 2000 — would carry immense costs, both in terms of lives and Israel’s international standing. The Israeli military cannot risk getting bogged down in another quagmire, but such a scenario could involve Israel holding the territory until it can hand it over to the currently hapless Lebanese Army or an international force.
Given the potentially dramatic developments that could follow today’s attack, it’s all the more baffling that Netanyahu, still grappling with the political fallout of the Oct. 7 debacle, would consider ousting Gallant. The defense minister is a seasoned general, and arguably the most competent figure in Netanyahu’s cabinet. To any sane eyes, his input at this extraordinarily tense moment is clearly essential. Whispers of Netanyahu’s plan have already sparked warnings about economic and other damage, and large protests.
Gallant is not only one of the few popular members of Netanyahu’s government; he also possesses crucial security expertise. The replacement Netanyahu has in mind, Gideon Sa’ar — a former Likud loyalist who broke with Netanyahu over the latter’s corruption scandals — is a politically savvy lawyer with no security credentials.
It’s clear why Netanyahu might see bringing Sa’ar back into the fold as worth it: Sa’ar’s New Hope party boasts four Knesset members, whose support would help shore up Netanyahu’s fragile coalition. Sa’ar has also reportedly suggested that, if made defense minister, he would support a law that would make permanent the controversial draft exemptions for the Haredim, which Gallant had been blocking. The Haredi parties, which are critical to the survival of Netanyahu’s ramshackle and quite disgraceful coalition of fanatics and ex-cons, are demanding such a move.
As ever, Netanyahu’s self-preservation shenanigans are a dangerous distraction when Israel needs competent, focused leadership. Instead of strengthening his defense apparatus, Netanyahu appears to be weakening it for personal gain.
With Israel’s military already stretched thin, nailing in the exemption of a key and growing demographic from service is the last thing the country needs. The military and the country are desperate for manpower — not for political pandering and shameless machinations.
And at a time when Israelis reasonably fear that an escalation with Hezbollah might expose the heavily populated center of the country to precision rockets fired by the group — as well as its patron Iran — the removal of the cabinet’s one real military expert would be a cause for enormous alarm.
As an example of the combustibility of the moment, Houthi fighters from Yemen are reportedly amassing in Syria and training to breach Israeli borders. Whether they could is an open question; whether Israel’s leadership needs to keep experts in power to avoid such an outcome is not.
The foolishness of firing Gallant as Israel faces the possibility of a wider war that could easily spiral out of control is hard to overstate. The tragic irony is that even as Tuesday’s attack appeared to put Israel’s technological superiority and operational excellence on display, its government seems incapable of strategic coherence — or even basic decency.
Israel does need to end the attacks from the north, but not necessarily through further military escalation. Its best route forward would likely be prioritizing a deal with the remains of Hamas in which Israel would end the war in Gaza in return for the remaining hostages — which Hezbollah has said would also bring an end to the northern war.
In Gaza and on the northern border, it’s time for Israel to come up with a day-after plan. And yet Netanyahu’s plans for Gallant make it clear he has little interest in doing so. Everything would be different if Israel had a government that was trusted by the international community and by the majority of its own people. That it is led by a criminal defendant who spends his days machinating ways to cling to power at any cost, including the country’s security, is unadulterated madness.
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