Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at a press conference in Tel Aviv on Oct. 28, 2023. Photo by Getty Images

Michael Koplow November 5, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s firing of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is not a surprise. Given the bad blood between them and Netanyahu’s desire to squelch any and all dissent within the ranks of his ruling coalition, it was inevitable. But the timing is notable for a few reasons.

First, it comes on the heels of Gallant yesterday approving a round of 7,000 new draft orders for Haredi conscripts. This is after 3,000 draft notices for Haredim were issued earlier this year, and only 230 of those receiving notices reported to the Israel Defense Forces induction center.

Drafting the Haredim has been the major issue in Israel this week in light of Haredi threats to vote against the budget unless the coalition passes a bill addressing their draft-evasion priorities. Today, Netanyahu pulled a bill from the Knesset that would have guaranteed daycare subsidies for Haredi draft dodgers because it could not command a majority. Gallant was the bill’s leading opponent in the coalition. The Haredim pulling out of the coalition is Netanyahu’s nightmare since it will cost him his majority, and that possibility increased today when the prime minister was not able to wrangle his coalition to pass the incredibly unpopular bill, which is opposed by nearly every non-Haredi Israeli. Netanyahu is hoping that firing Gallant removes one big obstacle.

Second, the other big news this week is the arrest of five people, including a Netanyahu spokesperson, for stealing classified information and leaking it to reporters to squelch support for a hostage deal. There is also an investigation into Netanyahu’s aides altering the minutes of war cabinet meetings afterwards to deflect blame for thwarting a hostage deal. Anything that changes the conversation and draws attention away from the leak investigation and Netanyahu’s inner circle is good from his perspective, and firing Gallant will definitely do that, at least temporarily. Netanyahu excels at flooding the zone to distract from bad news.

Third, when Netanyahu tried to fire Gallant the first time during the judicial overhaul, it drove hundreds of thousands of Israelis to the streets. This time, Netanyahu is betting it won’t. Israelis are exhausted. The war in Lebanon has widespread support, and protests have petered out. If ever there was a time to risk firing Gallant, this is it. Netanyahu is gambling that there will be a loud but brief outcry that he will weather, and he can then move along with a defense minister that he can control.

Lastly, the Election Day timing is not the prime motivator, but it’s a factor. Gallant is the Biden administration’s favorite and most trusted interlocutor. There will be lots of upset people in the White House and Pentagon over this move, so Netanyahu chose to do it on a day when the U.S. is most distracted.

The staggering recklessness of this act should not be understated. The U.S. is working with Israel to resolve the Lebanon conflict and keep Iran from responding to Israel’s Oct. 26 strikes. Israel is also about a week away from the deadline set by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for Israel to improve the Gaza aid process or risk a legally mandated cutoff of assistance. So at a time when U.S. assistance is most needed, and when a real blowup between the U.S. and Israel is at its highest possibility, Netanyahu fires the person at the vortex of managing both of these issues, and also the person the U.S. likes best.

And even leaving this all aside, Netanyahu decides to fire his defense minister when there is a war in Gaza and in Lebanon, and maybe an imminent war with Iran — and with the West Bank on the precipice of greater violence. It’s Election Day in America, but it’s never been clearer how badly Israel needs its own election.

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