Actually, the ceasefire deal might not be the biggest threat to Netanyahu’s coalition
The Haredi draft crisis is reaching a new peak as a March 31 deadline looms
Israeli police officers arrest Haredi Jewish protesters demonstrating against the end of the Haredi draft exemption in July. Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images
Columnist Dan Perry March 5, 2025
Much of the discussion in Israel has revolved around whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will collapse if he ends the war in Gaza. But there is a much faster ticking clock — one that is set to reach zero by March 31, and which involves the increasingly acrimonious relationship between mainstream society and the Haredim.
So profound is the rupture that it found its way into today’s swearing-in ceremony of new IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. Although the ceremony is supposed to be apolitical, Zamir addressed the issue head-on in his acceptance speech, saying in effect that decades of Haredi draft evasion must end. “We will act to broaden all of the parts of the population in all of the units of the IDF,” he said. “The role of defending our state must be divided up equally.”
The refusal by most Haredim to serve in the military is a long-festering issue that is now set to explode. The Supreme Court ruled last year that excusing Haredim from enlistment, a practice enabled over the years by informal arrangements, cannot continue without explicit legislation, which would probably be struck down as unegalitarian by the same court. Netanyahu has promised the Haredi parties to find a way to square this circle, and has played for time.
But time is running out. The Israeli government must pass a state budget by the end of the month or face automatic dissolution of the Knesset, triggering new elections. The Haredi parties, essential to Netanyahu’s governing coalition, are digging in their heels and have drawn their red line: no budget support unless the draft evasion law is finally passed.
Netanyahu, despite his mastery of political survival, may not have the votes to pass such a law. Coalition attrition is real, and public sentiment is overwhelmingly against the exemptions. All polls show that more than 70% of Israelis want the Haredim drafted, a figure that underscores near-universal opposition to the exemption outside the Haredi community, which makes up roughly a sixth of the population.
The catalyst for this political showdown is the war, which has starkly revealed the IDF’s personnel shortfall. But this crisis has been brewing for decades. Due to stupendous birthrates, the Haredi population is booming — Haredim are set to make up a quarter of Israel’s 18-year-old men in the coming years — rendering the current system unsustainable. Meanwhile, with everyone playing for time, the military has been sending out only a few thousand draft notices per month. That’s far short of what the IDF actually needs, and nowhere near what secular Israelis see as fair.
Three possible scenarios lie ahead:
First, the Haredim could cave. The government has been lavishing funds on them and maintaining their other financial privileges — massive subsidies, tax breaks, and other institutionalized benefits. The new proposed budget would further increase these. While this would be a humiliating and almost inconceivable comedown for the Haredi rabbis, it remains a possibility, especially since they rightly fear being left out of the next government entirely.
Second, Netanyahu could attempt to pass an in-between law — something that appears to create change but in reality preserves much of the status quo. Such a law would likely be struck down by the Supreme Court on grounds of inequality, but it could buy Netanyahu some time. Given the Israeli legal system’s slow-moving nature, this could provide enough breathing room to last until after elections.
Third, Netanyahu could fail to navigate the crisis, in which situation his coalition would collapse. If the Haredim refuse to budge, and Netanyahu cannot muster enough votes to pass a law that keeps them exempt, new elections would ensue. According to current polls, they would leave Netanyahu without a majority. Indeed, his electoral prospects are in part endangered by his now-complete association with the Haredim at a time when the anger at them is visceral and growing. Outside the Haredi world, Israeli parents feel increasingly impatient while watching their sons and daughters drafted, their lives interrupted and their futures put at risk, while an entire sector of society gets an apparent free pass.
Historically, the draft exemption was a small concession. David Ben-Gurion granted it in 1948 to a few hundred Torah scholars in an effort to mend rifts with the Haredi community after the Holocaust. But in 1977, when Menachem Begin needed Haredi support to form a government, the exemption expanded to all yeshiva students. It was never enshrined in law, but remained an “arrangement” — one that went largely unchallenged until the demographic explosion of the Haredim turned it into a national crisis.
Today, the Haredi birth rate is triple that of other Israelis, and their numbers are doubling every generation. This is no longer a marginal issue — it is an existential one. The consequences extend beyond military service. The Haredi education system largely eschews English, math and science, producing a workforce ill-equipped for participation in Israel’s high-tech, export-driven economy. The Haredi male labor force participation rate is a dismal 50%, with many employed in state-funded religious institutions. Their economic footprint is minimal; their reliance on state subsidies is immense.
And yet, they exert disproportionate influence over national policy. Their parties have wielded power to impose religious restrictions on the broader public, curbing commerce, public transport, and infrastructure projects on the Sabbath. Some of their leading rabbis have even claimed that prayer contributes more to Israel’s defense than military service. It is a position that inspires ridicule and rage in equal measure.
Because of the birthrate, the Haredi issue has even greater potential to undermine Israel as a prosperous and viable society than Arab hostility does. Netanyahu has been one of Israel’s luckiest — and cleverest — politicians. With this crisis reaching the breaking point on his watch, he will need to be cleverer than ever to survive it.
A message from our Publisher & CEO Rachel Fishman Feddersen
I hope you appreciated this article. Before you go, I’d like to ask you to please support the Forward’s award-winning, nonprofit journalism so that we can be prepared for whatever news 2025 brings.
At a time when other newsrooms are closing or cutting back, the Forward has removed its paywall and invested additional resources to report on the ground from Israel and around the U.S. on the impact of the war, rising antisemitism and polarized discourse.
Readers like you make it all possible. Support our work by becoming a Forward Member and connect with our journalism and your community.
— Rachel Fishman Feddersen, Publisher and CEO
