Did Netanyahu coerce Trump into attacking Iran? No — but he tried with Obama
Here’s why one Israeli expert thinks that Trump’s decision to attack Iran was a question of ‘Why not?’
President Donald Trump delivers an address to the nation on the three Iranian nuclear facilities struck by the U.S. military, accompanied by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth from the White House on June 21. Photo by Carlos Barria – Pool/Getty Images
Deputy Opinion Editor Nora Berman June 23, 2025
As soon as news broke that the United States had bombed three nuclear sites in Iran on Saturday, internet armchair analysts started sharing the theory that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had suckered President Donald Trump into doing his dirty work for him.
After all, Netanyahu has been advocating for the U.S. to take a harsher stance toward Iran for years. As comedian Jon Stewart said last week on The Daily Show: “Netanyahu has been talking about Iran getting nukes the way I talk about the Knicks getting a title. ‘This! This is the year.’”
To understand the U.S. actions better, and whether Trump really was being manipulated by Netanyahu, I reached out to Daniel Sobelman, a fellow with the Middle East Initiative and an associate professor of international relations at Hebrew University, Jerusalem. Sobelman’s focus is on asymmetric alliances — when a smaller country allies with a larger one for its protection.
And his particular interest is in asymmetric coercion, which happens when the vital interests of the smaller country diverge from its protector, and the smaller country — in this example, Israel — tries to influence or coerce the larger one — the United States — to realign more closely.
“Coercion is basically to make someone do something that they wouldn’t do otherwise without explicit threat,” Sobelman said, “or expediting a process that would have happened anyway by duress.”
I spoke with Sobelman by Zoom from his home in Rehovot. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Were the U.S. bombing raids of Iran’s nuclear program this weekend an example of successful coercion by Israel?
I don’t think that Israel was trying to coerce Donald Trump. I don’t think he is someone you want to try to coerce, honestly.
Because?
His temperament. Trump summoned Netanyahu to the White House, like two and a half months ago, to basically notify him live that he was going to pursue direct talks with Iran. Very atypically, Netanyahu was just sitting there and didn’t say a word. If anything, Trump imposed the agenda. It was, in fact, Trump who indicated a 60-day deadline for Iran to reach an agreement.
Back in 2011, 2012, there was a deliberate Israeli coercive diplomacy campaign, led by two people: Netanyahu and, as defense minister, the former prime minister, Ehud Barak. Basically, they initiated a war scare, and made not only the United States but also Israel’s security establishment believe that Israel was going to potentially attack Iran any day.
Israel publicly imposed this ticking clock deadline, conveying this message that by September, October, November 2012, “we’ll face the point of no return, we have to attack.” Netanyahu and Barak also kept their cards very close to the chest. The U.S. had to devote more intelligence to Israel than to Iran, because they had no idea what was going on, which made them fear an attack was imminent.
Netanyahu and Barak created the perception, which was very palpable, that Israel was about to attack Iran unilaterally. They were trying to basically scare the Obama administration and make it do something that, otherwise, the United States would not have been doing.
Interestingly, by the way, the bunker busters that were dropped on Fordo the other day by the United States, those bombs were invented as a result of that coercive campaign. They were one of the means by which the Obama administration tried to put Israel’s mind at ease and dissuade it from this imminent attack, by creating these bombs that would have the capability to deal with places like Fordo, that are built deep underground. Barak was invited to the United States to watch a test run of these bombs in action.
So, compared to former President Barack Obama, Trump just innately had more desire to bomb Iran and to go after their nuclear capabilities?
I think that would be fair to say that. But to be fair to Obama, I think that the circumstances have changed, and in some pretty profound ways.
Israel’s strategic environment has completely reshaped the Middle East. The landscape is very different from what it was on Oct. 7, or even a few months ago.
One of the deterring factors for Obama was that not only did Iran have all these missile capabilities, but also Iran’s Axis of Resistance had already gained critical mass — Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border, Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Obama also had to bring into consideration that all of this was happening in an election year. Whereas Trump just got elected, right? He doesn’t have that constraint. Iran’s nuclear program today is — I mean, was — far, far more advanced than back in 2011, 2012. There’s no doubt about it.
Also, Israel basically took care of Iran’s air defenses. Over the past week or so, Iran has been stripped of its air defense. At any given moment, you have a dozen Israeli jets over Iran. So Trump unleashed this attack against an adversary that really doesn’t have any air defenses, and had no way to protect itself.
So objectively, I think Trump had less constraints. And if this is how it ends, without further escalation, Trump will take 100% of the credit.
What do you think the urgency was for Trump to launch this attack? Why now?
I think before you ask “Why now?” for the U.S., you need to ask “Why now?” for Israel.
From Israel’s point of view, after Oct. 7 the country is just in a mindset of preemption. Before Oct. 7, Israel essentially treated Hamas and Hezbollah and the entire Axis of Resistance as some theoretical threat, right? It didn’t really sink into people. So something about Israel’s mindset has completely shifted.
Why now for Trump? What are the costs? It just became way easier. What the Israeli Air Force is doing on an hourly basis in Iran, it’s estimated that Israel has destroyed between two thirds of Iran’s missile launchers. It’s unclear how much they even can retaliate.
So for the United States to come and basically deliver this finale and destroy Iran’s nuclear program with just the greatest of ease? Why not?
