President Joe Biden. Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images

By Jacob Kornbluh May 13, 2024

Republicans and critics of the Biden administration’s Gaza policy have linked President Joe Biden’s recent decision to postpone the delivery of certain offensive weapons to Israel to the increasing internal dissent and pro-Palestinian demonstrations on university campuses. However, a new poll published on Monday indicates that a small fraction of voters have shifted their support away from Biden over this issue.

The New York Times/Siena College survey of 4,097 likely voters in six battleground states — Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — showed that around 13% of voters who backed President Joe Biden in 2020 but won’t support his reelection cited his management of the war in Gaza as their primary reason.

Nevertheless, most voters view the Middle East conflict as one of the less critical factors in determining their presidential vote this November. Among the respondents in the poll, 2% said the conflict in the Middle East is the most important issue influencing their choice for president. Among those who said that the war in Gaza was a determining factor for them, more sympathized with the Palestinians than the Israelis.

The top three voter issues cited in the poll were the economy, immigration and abortion. Conducted between April 28 and May 9 via landline and cellphone, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

Layla Elabed, a spokesperson for the “Uncommitted” national movement — a grassroots effort that led a series of campaigns to encourage Democratic primary voters frustrated with Biden’s failure to pressure Israel for a ceasefire to cast “uncommitted” or blank ballots —  said the poll results “confirm the sentiment” they have heard from voters daily. “Biden’s disregard for Palestinian lives and our campaign could hand the election to Trump,” Elabed said, “but his team is burying their heads in the sand.”

The survey did not ask directly what voters think of Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas in the past seven months, which includes the president’s growing criticism of the Israeli government’s plan for an operation in the heavily populated area of Rafah and the decision to halt aid. The poll showed that 83% of Biden supporters still trust him over Trump, or other third-party candidates, in managing the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, among those who voted for Biden in 2020, that number drops to 71%. 

Some Democrats are worried that voter dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the Gaza war could harm their prospects in this election year. Anger over police crackdowns in the anti-war protests on college campuses nationwide has reportedly complicated the Biden campaign’s effort to mobilize young voters. Biden’s harsher tone towards Israel has not led to electoral gains, especially among young progressive voters and Arab-American constituents.

“The administration’s focus has successfully been on managing the conflict where it counts —  in the Middle East, and not formulating policy based on political calculations on American college campuses,” said former Rep. Steve Israel, a Democrat from New York.

In a recent NBC News focus group of 16 students at the University of Wisconsin who disapproved of Biden’s handling of the war, most said the issue would not have a major effect on their presidential vote. Similarly, the Harvard Youth Poll in March revealed that respondents rated other challenges confronting the U.S., like the economy, as more important to them than the war in Gaza.

Mark Mellman, a longtime Democratic pollster and head of the Democratic Majority for Israel, noted that of the six battleground states in the poll, Michigan — “the place where everybody thought was ground zero for this issue” — is the only state where Biden is leading Trump among likely voters. 

“The data do not support the conclusion that Biden’s support for Israel is damaging,” said Mellman. 

The Biden campaign pushed back against the poll, describing it as “inconsistent” with a set of polls on the race. “Drawing broad conclusions about the race based on results from one poll is a mistake,” Geoff Garin, a Biden pollster, said. “The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not started making up their minds — a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll. These voters will decide this election and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over.”

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