How the war in Gaza impacted Michigan’s primary — and what that portends for the general election
Voters in Michigan’s presidential primary on Feb. 27, 2024. Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images
By Jacob Kornbluh February 27, 2024
President Joe Biden’s supporters are trying to minimize the results of a protest vote in Michigan’s presidential primary over his stance on the Israel-Hamas war.
More than 13% of Democrats marked “uncommitted” Tuesday. The “Listen to Michigan” campaign had asked Democrats to make that choice to show their frustration with Biden’s failure to endorse a ceasefire in the war. The vote in the critical swing state may prompt the president to more strongly pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to halt Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.
But the vote won’t hurt Biden’s chances in November, said many of the president’s allies.
“It matters if people are expressing themselves in ways that suggest they are going to walk away,” David Axelrod, a Democratic strategist and former adviser to President Barack Obama, said on CNN. “It’s one thing to register your discontent with the president in a primary. It’s another thing in a race against Donald Trump.” Former President Donald Trump, who lost to Biden in 2020, is seeking a second term.
Organizers of the protest vote had said they wanted at least 10,000 Democrats to vote “uncommitted” — which has long been an option on Michigan ballots. But the count showed the campaign had surpassed that goal even before polls closed at 9 p.m.
‘Friction’ among Democrats
With 98% of the ballots counted, “uncommitted” received 100,960 votes. Listen to Michigan supporters said Biden should understand those votes as a rebuke. He disregards Arab Americans and progressives in Michigan at his electoral peril, they said.
“Our movement emerged victorious tonight and massively surpassed our expectations,” said Layla Elabed, the protest campaign’s manager. “Tens of thousands of Michigan Democrats, many of whom voted for Biden in 2020, are uncommitted to his re-election due to the war in Gaza.”
Michigan is home to the largest Arab American population in the nation.
The protest movement, thanks to its showing in the primary, is expected to have an official presence at the Democratic National Convention held in Chicago in August.
The day before the Michigan primary, surprising many, Biden said he expects an agreement by next week between Israel and Hamas for a six-week pause in the fighting. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut, said a temporary ceasefire in Gaza could provide Biden a political boost. “I am very, very hopeful that a pause can diminish some of the apparent friction involved in that coalition,” he said, speaking of divisions among Democrats.
Israel’s campaign in Gaza, which has killed about 30,000 Palestinians, was prompted by Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, in which the terror group killed 1,200 and took 240 hostage.
‘The path of peace’
Other allies of the president said he made a strong showing Tuesday, garnering the support of 79% of Democratic primary voters, according to unofficial election results.
Halie Soifer, chief executive of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, said voters who chose “uncommitted’ did so knowing that Biden would easily win the primary. “We are confident that when faced with the stark choice between President Biden and Donald Trump in the general election, American voters — including Michiganders — will once again choose Biden,” she said.
A pre-primary Emerson College poll of 406 respondents showed Trump with a 2% lead over Biden with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 10,000 votes and Biden won the state in 2020 with 154,000 votes.
Before Tuesday’s vote, The Democratic Majority for Israel said Listen to Michigan’s goal of 10,000 votes would be “a horrendous showing” for the movement, noting that it falls significantly short of the 19,000 voters who selected that option in the 2020 primary, when both Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders were on the ballot.
On Tuesday night, though, DMFI seemed to recognize that the protest vote had far exceeded that goal, and focused on Biden’s chances in the general election. “Joe Biden won Michigan by 150,000 votes in 2024. Are enough people voting uncommitted to erase that margin?” it asked rhetorically in an email sent to reporters. And the group said there is no evidence for claims that every “uncommitted” vote was a vote against Biden’s support of Israel.
Biden and the Democratic National Committee didn’t mention the protest vote or Gaza in their statements Tuesday night. Mark Mellman, head of DMFI, said the results showed Biden “trounced his opposition” by 65%.
Supporters of the campaign to vote uncommitted included Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian American member of Congress, and a group of progressive Jews, led by former Michigan Rep. Andy Levin, who called it “existential for Joe Biden’s political survival.”
Speaking at an election night party in Dearborn, Levin said “uncommitted” voters had demanded “simply that we follow the path of peace.”
Listen to Michigan spent $200,000 on the campaign, including more than $100,000 in digital ads, phone and text voter contact and direct mail.
Organizers are planning a similar protest vote campaign in Pennsylvania, which holds its primary in April.
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