Biden is assured victory in Michigan primary, but the state’s large Arab American population wants to send a warning
President Joe Biden speaks during an Eid al-Fitr reception in 2022. Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images
By Jacob Kornbluh February 26, 2024
President Joe Biden is practically assured a victory in Tuesday’s Michigan primary. But the state’s Arab American population, the largest in the U.S., is hoping to send the president a stark message: They are dissatisfied with the president’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war.
A movement to encourage at least 10,000 voters to cast an “uncommitted” protest vote has gained momentum. (Michigan ballots have an “uncommitted” box on them.)
And while it won’t impact the results on Tuesday, some Democratic Party officials are worried it could spur problems in the general election. If those Democratic voters unhappy with Biden choose to sit out in November and encourage other progressives to do so as well, it could be a critical swing in a critical swing state. (Trump won Michigan in 2016 by roughly 10,000 votes. Biden won the state in 2020 by more than 150,000 votes.)
A new Emerson College poll of 406 respondents showed Biden with 75% support among Michigan’s Democratic primary voters, while 9% planned to vote “uncommitted.” According to the survey, released Monday with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, support for the protest vote is at 28% among voters under the age of 30.
Supporters of the campaign called “Listen to Michigan” said the poll underscored the impact of their effort, signaling to Biden that continued disregard for the views of the large Arab American population and progressive voters advocating for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza could jeopardize the state’s electoral votes in the upcoming general election.
James Zogby, an Arab American pollster, said the percentage is “significantly” higher than the margin between Biden and Trump in recent polls and doubles the Arab American voter turnout seen in previous Michigan elections, which was estimated at 4.5%. “I am feeling that we almost don’t need to vote tomorrow,” he said, “because what we see is that this issue is having an impact and the writing is on the wall.”
Allies of the president dismissed that claim, highlighting Biden’s strong support among Democratic voters. “What counts isn’t the poll but the vote,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster and head of the Democratic Majority for Israel. Mellman suggested that even if Listen to Michigan achieves its goal of 10,000 votes for “uncommitted,” it would still be “a horrendous showing” for the movement, as it falls significantly short of the 19,000 voters who selected that option in the 2020 primary when both Biden and Bernie Sanders were on the ballot.
Voter sentiment and political strategy
The campaign to cast a protest vote follows a similar initiative for a “ceasefire” write-in vote in last month’s New Hampshire primary, which garnered only 1,500 votes. It comes amid pressure growing in the Democratic Party’s progressive wing to get Biden to call for a permanent ceasefire, and as sympathy for Palestinians has risen, particularly among younger Democrats and people of color. A recent poll showed that 53% of voters in Michigan, including 74% of Democrats, favor a unilateral ceasefire in Gaza.
“Biden’s policies in Gaza are wildly unpopular among American voters and it will prove costly for him if he does not change course,” said Layla Elabed, a spokesperson for Listen to Michigan.
The group disclosed it spent $200,000 on the campaign, including more than $100,000 in digital ads, phone and text voter contact and direct mail. Waleed Shahid, a progressive strategist who is involved in the messaging, called it a “shoestring budget” in comparison to the expenditures of other independent groups, yet with the potential for a greater impact. Anything significantly above 10,000 votes, he said, “would be pretty alarming for Biden.”
Rep. Ro Khanna of California, one of 66 congressional Democrats who have called for a ceasefire, visited Michigan last week to meet with Muslim and Arab American leaders. In an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, Khanna said that while he is urging voters to back Biden, those voting against the president shouldn’t be shamed or ostracized. He said Biden will “have a lot of work to do to re-earn the trust of this community.”
Adrian Hemond, a Michigan-based Democratic strategist, said the effort and threat to sit out the general election is “certainly cause for concern” for Biden’s prospects in November. But he said that they are a group of “somewhat inconsistent voters” when measured against other groups as a base of support.
The Biden campaign didn’t respond to an inquiry about their concerns about the “uncommitted” effort.
On Monday, during a visit to New York City, Biden said that he expects Israel and Hamas to finalize an agreement that would see a pause in the fighting in Gaza by next week.
Khanna told Politico the remarks were timed to address the issue on the eve of the primary. “Nothing in politics is a coincidence,” he said. “This is happening because the president is hearing that a large part of his coalition wants this war to end.”
What Jewish groups are saying
Jewish voters overwhelmingly support Biden’s approach to the war in Gaza. A person close to the White House, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the president’s strategy, said neglecting the pro-Israel electorate would pose a greater political risk. The “uncommitted” effort, the official said, wrongly assesses the political dynamics.
The political action committee of the Democratic Majority for Israel launched a countereffort last week, publishing an online video. The group invested $178,000 in digital advertising and phone banking for Biden, according to FEC filings from last week, a sign that it plans to play an active role in supporting the president.
The Jewish Democratic Council of America PAC did not invest in the presidential primary. Halie Soifer, JDCA’s chief executive, said the group has lent its voice to speaking out against it. “Any effort to deflect or divert Democratic support from President Biden in this election is effectively a vote for Donald Trump,” Soifer said. “Those who want Biden to win in November shouldn’t play with fire and waste their vote on a third party or protest position.”
A group of progressive Jews, led by former Michigan Rep. Andy Levin, has promoted the campaign to vote “uncommitted,” saying it is “existential for Joe Biden’s political survival.”
Biden traveled to New York City on Monday for a campaign fundraiser.
Closing argument
Elabed, the Listen to Michigan spokesperson, said that regardless of Tuesday’s outcome, they have “already been victorious,” as it forced the political class to pay attention to the concerns of the Palestinian and Muslim communities.
Zogby, who commissioned a poll which found that a majority of Democrats and young voters are less likely to support a politician who opposes a ceasefire, said the Biden campaign is “living in a bubble” if it thinks it can continue its Gaza policy to satisfy Jews and pro-Israel evangelicals. “Frankly, I don’t want the bubble to burst,” he said, “because I’m as afraid of Trump as anybody is. But they have to give people a reason to vote.”
This post was updated to clarify JCDA’s PAC involvement in the presidential race.
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