Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images and Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

By Jacob Kornbluh September 24, 2024

A new poll shows sharp differences among Orthodox and Haredi voters, with 93% of Haredim intending to vote for former President Donald Trump and 55% of Modern Orthodox intending to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in a head-to-head match-up.

The Nishma Research poll of 1,296 voters, conducted via web between Aug. 28 and Sept. 18, also indicated that Orthodox Jews rank Israel and antisemitism as critically important issues, far more so than non-Orthodox voters rank them in other polls. Nishma is a Connecticut-based marketing firm that specializing in surveying the Orthodox.

The survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, also showed a slight uptick in Orthodox support for Trump overall: 77% marks a 4 percentage point increase from a similar Nishma poll taken a year ago, prior to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

Forwarding the News

Thoughtful, balanced reporting from the Forward and around the web, bringing you updated news and analysis each day.

Terms(Required)

I agree to the Forward's Terms of Service and Privacy Policy

Email(Required)

About a tenth of Jewish Americans identify as Orthodox.

American Jews in general vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. In the last election, 77% of Jewish voters cast ballots for President Joe Biden, according to a J Street poll (68% according to an Associated Press survey.)

Nishma pollster Mark Trencher said 678 respondents in this year’s poll identified as Haredi — Hasidic or Yeshivish Jews who belong to a sect or follow a particular rabbi. Modern Orthodox Jews, who closely observe Jewish law but are more integrated in secular society, represented 595 respondents.

The poll also found that:

• 68% of Haredim will definitely vote for Trump, and 15% probably will, compared to 27% of Modern Orthodox who will definitely vote for Trump and 11% who probably will;
• 5% of Haredim will definitely vote for Harris and 2% probably will, compared to 37% of Modern Orthodox who will definitely vote for Harris and 9% who probably will;
• 4% of Haredim and 7% of Modern Orthodox are undecided;
• 4% of Haredim and 6% of Modern Orthodox will probably not vote.
• 2% of Haredim and 3% of Modern Orthodox will vote for candidates other than Trump or Harris.

Haredi support for Trump is high, ranging from 88% to 96%, across all age groups and for both men and women.

A small majority of Modern Orthodox men over 50 said they intend to vote for Trump, and 72% of Modern Orthodox women under 50 said they would vote for Harris.

“Younger Modern Orthodox women, like their non-Orthodox and non-Jewish peers, are an area of weakness for Trump,” but not Haredi women, Trencher said. “In other surveys we’ve done, younger women tend to be a bit more liberal religiously than men, and maybe this carries over to their political views as well.”

In a recent poll of 800 Jewish Americans — including non-Orthodox and Orthodox respondents — sponsored by the Jewish Democratic Council of America, 9% of respondents named Israel as one of the two most important issues. 

In the Nishma poll, overwhelming majorities of both Haredi and Modern Orthodox voters told pollsters that Israel and antisemitism are their top issues.

The Forward is free to read, but it isn’t free to produce

I hope you appreciated this article. Before you go, I’d like to ask you to please support the Forward.

Now more than ever, American Jews need independent news they can trust, with reporting driven by truth, not ideology. We serve you, not any ideological agenda.

At a time when other newsrooms are closing or cutting back, the Forward has removed its paywall and invested additional resources to report on the ground from Israel and around the U.S. on the impact of the war, rising antisemitism and polarized discourse.

Readers like you make it all possible. Support our work by becoming a Forward Member and connect with our journalism and your community.

This is a great time to support independent Jewish journalism you rely on. Make a gift today!

—  Rachel Fishman Feddersen, Publisher and CEO

Support our mission to tell the Jewish story fully and fairly.

$90 $180

$360

Other amount