A ceasefire may be imminent in Israel’s war in Lebanon — why not Gaza?
There are two crucial differences between Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah and its war against Hamas
A picture taken from the southern Lebanese city of Tyre shows smoke rising from the site of an Israeli strike targeting southern villages on October 13, 2024, amid the continuing war between Hezbollah and Israel. Photo by AFP via Getty Images
Columnist Dan Perry November 20, 2024
Israel’s war in Lebanon with Hezbollah, while ongoing, appears to be winding down. Negotiators always posture but there is reason to anticipate a ceasefire deal, even if solidifying it may take a while.
Why might such a deal in Lebanon arrive so quickly, when months of negotiations have failed to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza? Two answers: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs only one ongoing war to keep his far-right coalition afloat. And, the Lebanon front is distinct from Gaza’s in two important ways.
First, Israel’s military and intelligence branches can present a success against Hezbollah, which the government can take credit for. The Iran-backed militia has been thrashed, and is on its back foot; the long-forgotten Lebanese state has correspondingly rediscovered a spine; Iran is recalibrating its aggression, concerned about the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump; and Western powers are pressing hard, since the Middle East meltdown is a domestic headache, and this part of it seems resolvable.
Second, Lebanon is a good story for Israel on the world stage. With Hezbollah, Israel is completely in the right. The group, which before the current war had been the world’s largest non-state army, had long occupied parts of Lebanon with no justification; since Oct. 8, 2023, it has been using those strongholds to barrage Israel with rockets. Lebanon knows this situation is outrageous and unjustifiable; the West knows it; the Arabs know it; and Iran knows it.
Unlike with the messy Palestinian situation — which involves a 57-year-old Israeli military occupation marked by fanatical Jewish settlers attacking Palestinian shepherds in the West Bank, and tens of thousands of civilians dead in the recent conflict in Gaza — Israel’s war against Hezbollah has been clearly just. That is a far better story than that unfolding in the south, where Israel’s failure to prevent the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7 remains a massive embarrassment, and where the increasingly unpopular war against Hamas is mired over a year on, with 101 hostages still missing.
The ever-scheming Netanyahu needs war to go on in order to not just because his far-right coalition insists on it, but also to preserve himself by forestalling an inquiry into the debacle of Oct. 7. But since he has the Gaza arena for that, the Lebanese one is not just expendable, but advantageous to close.
Israelis would overwhelmingly be delighted with an end to the northern war, since despite its successes, the costs are mounting. More than 70 Israeli soldiers have been killed. (In addition, thousands of people have been killed in Lebanon, although most are believed to be members of Hezbollah.) A resolution should enable the return of the more than 50,000 civilians displaced for more than a year from their homes in the north, addressing a festering sore. And it would enable the beleaguered Netanyahu to declare a victory without necessarily twisting the truth — a rarity he will relish.
About three months after Israel finally got serious about putting an end to the outrage in the north, here is where we stand:
- Most of Hezbollah’s leadership, including longtime Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, has been wiped out. Israel’s exploding-beepers attack in August disabled more 1,000 fighters, spreading demoralization and raising serious fears as to how deeply Israel had infiltrated Hezbollah’s technical operations. Israeli security officials say about 80% of Hezbollah’s missile potential has been neutralized; its headquarters in the Dahiya neighborhood in Beirut has been pulverized; its depots and tunnels all over the villages of south Lebanon have been taken out. For Hezbollah, a truce would mark not a strategic pause but a necessary retreat.
- Lebanon itself, long hostage to Hezbollah’s dominance, is showing signs of what counts for bravery in an essentially failed state. “The opportunity is available today to bring everyone back under the authority of the state,” said caretaker premier Najib Mikati last week. That’s a stunning stand for dignity after decades in which Lebanon has been paralyzed by Hezbollah’s shadow government, its military power, and its ability to drag the country into war — a break from the cowering fatalism that has defined its politics for so long.
- Iran, too, is playing a role in this de-escalation. With the specter of Trump’s return to the White House, trailed by a posse of Iran hawks like Sen. Marco Rubio, whom Trump intends to nominate to be secretary of state, Tehran is treading cautiously. The previous Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign inflicted severe damage on Iran’s economy; a repeat could be catastrophic. Iran’s fairly muted response to Israeli strikes on sensitive sites within its borders over the past several months suggests the regime is more interested in preserving its strategic assets than escalating the conflict.
- Meanwhile, the United States and the European Union are desperate for calm. The war has exacerbated tensions in countries with large Muslim minorities and was a factor in the Democrats’ electoral wipeout on Nov. 5. A ceasefire will serve everyone. President Joe Biden will be able to point to a final success amid the smoldering ruins of his foreign policy, but Trump will also, of course, claim credit. For once, it wouldn’t even be a total fabrication.
What would a deal look like? The Lebanese military is likely to assume security responsibilities in southern Lebanon, enforcing Hezbollah’s retreat north of the Litani River as outlined in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. Will they seek outside help — from the West, the UN, or an Arab force? That remains a question.
The more ambitious goal of disarming Hezbollah entirely remains elusive, absent significant international pressure on Iran, or truly surprising gumption from Lebanon itself.
What is more plausible is the establishment of mechanisms to block Hezbollah’s rearmament through Syria or other routes, which will require the cooperation of the Lebanese government., and there has been talk of Arab or Western nations involved in the supervision.
Israel’s demand for a formal right to intervene militarily in Lebanon if the terms of a ceasefire are violated is less likely to be codified. Such a provision would infringe on Lebanese sovereignty, and is almost certainly a negotiating ploy designed to be traded away. Still, Israel’s de facto ability to respond to threats will remain intact.
This is the context for U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein’s optimistic new statement, after meeting in Beirut with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, that there was a “real opportunity” to end the conflict.
Ever the diplomat, Hochstein downplayed the possible achievement. It would end more than this conflict. The real opportunity is to restore sanity to Lebanon — a fascinating and beautiful country that should be prosperous, pleasant, and at peace with its southern neighbor.
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