Israel’s next war front: Why Lebanon is different than Gaza
The fight by Iran and Hezbollah is not for justice or self-determination, but an orchestrated campaign of aggression
First responders and Israeli security forces gather amid debris and charred vehicles in Kiryat Bialik in the Haifa District of Israel, following a reported strike by Hezbollah Sept. 22. Photo by Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images
Columnist Dan Perry September 22, 2024
This piece originally appeared in Dan Perry’s Substack, “Ask Questions Later.”
As tensions escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, the world community would do well to grasp a fundamental truth: The messy Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which defies moral certitudes and straightforward narratives, should not be conflated with the threat posed by Iran and its jihadist proxies. In the latter arena, Israel is totally in the right as the party that is under attack.
The world often views the Israeli-Palestinian struggle through a lens of historical grievances, and there is a global ennui with what has become a story of squabbling tribes often represented by unappealing leaders pushing maximalist agendas. Despite the deep complexity and tragic history, there are legitimate grievances on both sides.
The Palestinians have long sought self-determination, and though their leadership has often failed them, their efforts are not unjustifiable. Israel has legitimate security concerns and a right to defend itself. Most informed people understand that this is a difficult entanglement.
But on the Lebanon front, Hezbollah’s Iran-driven aggression is of another cast: the marquee element of an unrelenting effort to destabilize the region and expand Iranian influence through violence, terror and a bizarrely effective Islamist gaslighting campaign. Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel are not about land or freedom, even if they have invented a handful of trivial border demarcation disputes in order to bamboozle the gullible. They are not even about the Palestinians, whom Hezbollah claims to be in solidarity with. This is not a fight for justice or self-determination but an orchestrated campaign of aggression.
Hezbollah has been firing rockets, shells and drones at Israel since the day after the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion and massacre, and this has caused over 60,000 Israelis to flee their homes in the north of the country, some of whose towns lie in ruins. Israel has, incredibly, somehow allowed this to continue, hoping counterstrikes and targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders — and in the past week, a campaign of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies — will somehow deter the group. But jihadis do not have deterrence as a function — and now there is talk of a ground invasion to push Hezbollah away from the northern border.
7 strategies for a path forward
Iran’s proxy aggression extends far beyond Lebanon, impacting stability across the entire Middle East. In Yemen, Iran’s support for the Houthi rebels has fueled a devastating civil war, and over much of the past year the group has been impeding global maritime trade through the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has severely affected Egypt’s economy due to reduced traffic through the Suez Canal. Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria continue to undermine fragile postwar recovery efforts while propping up the brutal Assad regime in Syria. Iran’s influence also threatens Jordan’s brittle, pro-Western Hashemite Kingdom.
The West’s reluctance to engage in another Middle Eastern conflict is understandable, particularly after the costly and ultimately futile wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But ignoring the threat posed by Hezbollah and Iran is not a viable option. Iran’s ambitions in the region are clear, and its pursuit of nuclear weapons is a ticking time bomb that the world cannot afford to ignore. And in the immediate term, allowing Hezbollah to operate with impunity, and allowing this to be Israel’s problem alone, is a terrible mistake.
For one thing, that is because Israel is unfortunately saddled with an internally divisive right-wing government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — one that even many Israelis don’t trust to handle the situation responsibly. That complicates the chances that Israel can maintain the support of its allies, particularly the United States. Military assistance, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic backing in international forums like the U.N. Security Council will be critical.
It is therefore critical that if the fighting does escalate, especially if Israel invades southern Lebanon, it takes great care to ensure the people of Lebanon not suffer for the actions of a terrorist organization that has hijacked their country. Israel must go above and beyond to spare Lebanese civilians, not only because it is the right thing to do, but because the future of Israeli-Lebanese relations depends on it.
Lebanon is not Gaza, and its people, for the most part, are not aligned with Hezbollah’s destructive agenda. (That is not exactly true in Gaza, which is more homogeneous, and where Hamas has used its brutal and sole control to try to brainwash the entire population for two decades or so.) They deserve a future free from Iranian influence and Hezbollah’s grip — and at peace with Israel.
It would be better if Israel were made to feel like it does not need to invade Lebanon and incur the risks of that scenario. And that might still happen if the international community, particularly the United States and Europe, adopted a wholly different approach. There are powerful tools that could be deployed.
- Targeted sanctions: First and foremost, the world should impose targeted sanctions on the leadership of both Hezbollah and Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This includes freezing assets, banning international travel, and blocking access to international financial systems for key officials, military commanders and business elites tied to Tehran’s aggressive foreign policy. Sanctions could also extend to companies and individuals that provide logistical or financial support to Hezbollah’s operations, ensuring that the flow of funds to the group is drastically reduced.
- Support for opposition groups: A critical step in undermining Iran’s grip on the region is to bolster support for opposition groups, both inside and outside the country. Many Iranians are deeply dissatisfied with their government, and empowering pro-democracy movements within Iran can amplify internal pressures on the regime. International support for Iranian dissidents, alongside information campaigns that promote democratic ideals, human rights, and the benefits of peace over regional expansionism, can erode the government’s legitimacy.
- Engagement with the Iranian and Lebanese populations: The world must differentiate between the Iranian regime and its people, and between Hezbollah and the Lebanese population. A massive, thoughtful and empathetic social media campaign from the West can do wonders to let them know that they are not alone.
- Pressure on Lebanon: Lebanon’s government is hapless, but it must be made to own its haplessness. Lebanon must be told in no uncertain terms that the use of its sovereign territory to attack Israel must stop, and if it cannot do this then it must ask for help. The Lebanese government needs to publicly disavow Hezbollah’s actions and pursue a formal invitation for external intervention or peacekeeping forces to neutralize the group’s military capabilities.
- Diplomatic and economic pressure on Turkey: Turkey, despite being a NATO member, has flirted with both Hezbollah and Hamas, creating a dangerous duplicity in its foreign policy. The international community, particularly NATO, must exert diplomatic pressure on Turkey to cease all forms of cooperation with these groups. This could involve restrictions on defense cooperation, suspension of certain trade deals, or even NATO sanctions if Turkey continues to enable terrorist organizations. Turkey’s balancing act between the West and militant groups in the region must be called out, and Ankara should face consequences if it continues to play both sides.
- Holding Qatar accountable: Qatar has long presented itself as a Western ally — even hosting a soccer World Cup! — while simultaneously offering support and safe harbor to extremist groups. The international community must apply economic and political pressure on Qatar, demanding it make a clear choice between being a genuine partner for peace or continuing its duplicitous role. This could involve boycotts of Qatari investments, restrictions on Qatar’s state airline and freezing diplomatic engagement with Doha until it shows a firm commitment to opposing Hezbollah’s influence.
- Intelligence and diplomatic cooperation: The U.S., European nations, and moderate Sunni nations of the Middle East should work together to track Hezbollah’s financial networks, arms smuggling operations, and international connections. Diplomatic efforts should focus on isolating Iran and Hezbollah by fostering alliances between Israel, Gulf nations, and other Arab states, building on the progress made through the Abraham Accords. In this context, it would be legitimate to pressure Israel to act in good faith to seek accommodation with the Palestinians — for example, by first and foremost freezing all Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
Despite its war-weariness, the West cannot afford to sit idly by while Iran and Hezbollah destabilize the region, risking a broader conflict that could engulf the entire Middle East, and waiting for Iran to go nuclear on top of that. Hezbollah and Iran are the aggressors in this conflict, and the world must treat them as such. Failure to do so will only feed more violence and extremism, and end very badly.
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