Last month, the FBI raided the offices of Rep. Rick Renzi’s family business as part of an ongoing Justice Department investigation into a land-swap deal that could benefit one of the Arizona Republican’s friends. Just days before that raid, the FBI searched the home of Rep. John Doolittle, apparently looking for records of a company run by the California Republican’s wife, who had done business with disgraced GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Doolittle immediately announced that he was temporarily stepping down from the House Appropriations Committee. Renzi said he would do the same from the House Intelligence Committee. Both men denied wrongdoing.
The raids did not surprise many in Washington; for months, everyone knew that the legislators were being investigated by the Justice Department. But they put the GOP’s continuing woes back in the spotlight, and while the party’s scandals are unlikely to decide the 2008 presidential elections, they may convince more than a few voters that it is time for change in the White House.
Scandal alone does not explain the GOP’s sizable 30-seat loss last year in the House of Representatives, or the party’s stunning six-seat loss in the Senate. Iraq was a larger issue in the minds of voters, and it contributed to the general perception that George W. Bush’s presidency has failed. But Republicans clearly lost at least three House seats because of scandal.
Pennsylvania Republican Don Sherwood lost re-election in a very Republican district after admitting to having a mistress but disputing her charge that he attacked her. John Sweeney lost his solidly Republican seat in New York after multiple controversies hit local newspapers, including reports of the congressman drinking at a college fraternity party and of alleged domestic violence between the congressman and his wife. And Ohio Republican Bob Ney’s seat went Democratic three weeks after the House Administration Committee chairman pleaded guilty to felony charges and just four days after he resigned.
Perhaps more importantly, those scandals — as well as those involving California Rep. Duke Cunningham, who took more than $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors; Texas Rep. Tom DeLay, who was indicted for violating Texas campaign law, and Florida Rep. Mark Foley, who sent inappropriate e-mails and instant messages to former House pages — played into the impression that Republicans were more concerned with protecting and enriching themselves than with pursuing policies to deal with the nation’s problems.
Exit polling after last year’s congressional elections showed 41% of respondents saying that “corruption and scandals” were “extremely important” in their vote, a higher percentage than those who said that the war in Iraq or the economy was “extremely important.” Of that 41%, three-fifths voted for Democratic House candidates, compared with less than two-fifths for Republicans.
And since last year’s election, the news has only gotten worse for Republicans. In March, Vice President Dick Cheney’s former chief of staff, Lewis Libby, was convicted of perjury and of obstruction of justice. The same month, the White House got itself into trouble when reports surfaced that the administration appeared to be firing U.S. attorneys who either went after Republican officeholders or were not as aggressive in going after Democratic officeholders as the White House and other Republican elected officials wanted.
As they did in 2006, there is no doubt Democrats will run in 2008 against an alleged “culture of corruption” in the GOP. And as was the case in 2006, it is likely to prove to be an effective issue for them, since its appeal crosses ideological lines and should have particular appeal to independent voters.
Democrats will use the issue even though they have an embarrassment or two of their own: Former North Carolina Rep. Frank Balance was sentenced to four years in prison for funneling tax dollars to his law firm and to his relatives, and Louisiana Rep. William Jefferson is still under investigation for possible bribery charges after FBI agents found $90,000 hidden in his freezer.
Democrats will use the issue because they know it will be the Republican Party — which controlled Congress from 1995 until this past January and has run the White House for the past seven years — that is most likely to take the blame for any general impression among voters that Washington has become a sewer of corruption and scandal.
Republicans will rightly argue that they already paid the price for scandal in the 2006 midterm election. And they just as surely will note that whatever the shortcomings of the current administration, George W. Bush will not be on the ballot again in 2008.
Those arguments, however, are unlikely to be compelling enough to convince voters that the Republican Party is blameless for the country’s problems.
A survey conducted in late March by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center found 43% of adults responding that the Democratic Party “governs in a more honest and ethical way,” while just 25% picked the Republican Party. Not surprisingly, a majority of respondents picked the Democrats as being able to “bring about the kind of changes the country needs,” while only half as many, 26%, picked the GOP.
And yet, for all the Republican Party’s problems with scandal and ethics, the biggest issue in the 2008 presidential elections — as in the previous one — is likely to be Iraq, which continues to show up in national polling as the top issue of the day. As has been the case with most elections, next year’s race is likely to be a choice between continuity and change.
Republicans will have a new nominee for president next year, but that does not mean he will begin with an entirely clean slate. Instead, he will need to overcome impressions about his party that have festered for years, impressions based primarily on the situation in Iraq but also to some extent on Republicans’ performance in office. Not surprisingly, current polling shows Americans with a much more favorable impression of the Democratic Party than of the GOP.
Over the next 18 months, Democrats will surely spend time talking about scandal and corruption. You can easily imagine Democratic TV ads featuring lists of alleged ethical lapses by Republicans over the past four years, ending with a tagline about it being time for a change.
Focusing on Republican scandals may not be a silver bullet for Democrats, but it will reinforce any existing sentiment among voters that it is time for change — and that undoubtedly will be a major problem for whoever the GOP nominates for president in 2008.
Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report.
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Steven Israel's comment can most charitably be described as disingenuous. His blanket allegation that "both parties" are corrupt fails to measure the degree, or extent of corruption set out in Mr. Rothenberg's article. As his support Mr. Israel channels the New York Post, and it's character asassination piece about some property in San Francisco that received federal funding, leading him to the assumption that it will line the Pelosi pockets. This is another example of spending way too much time picking far too much nit. A quick read of that overly inflamatory article, ultimately admits that there is nothing really to the charge save wild, "what if" speculation. "Does this financially benefit her? I don't know the answer to that question," said Rep. Hensarling, who chairs the Republican Study Committee, a group of conservative lawmakers. Wow...this "corruption" turns out to be nothing more than, "well, maybe." Better sharpen those research skills Steven.
Mr. A, You must have slept through the 8 years of the Clinton Administration. From Whitewater to selling our secrets to the Chinese. There are too many to mention! I only mentioned Pelosi and Feinstein because I figured most people would know who they are. They are both dirty. Below I've listed a few more for your reading enjoyment but the point is not whose list is longer but that both parties will be corrupt if given the chance. In the next election national security issues overshadow corruption. The democrats are already trying to weaken the Patriot Act. The war with radical Islam is more important then corruption. I want the president to know that the greatest threat to humanity is evil radical Islam and not the idiocy of man made global warming. Here are a few samples of news headlines from the end of last year. Sandy Berger stealing classified documents from the National Archives. Should have been thrown in jail. Hillary's illegal campain contributions in her last senatorial campaign. Isn't it funny that so many people involved with the Clintons end up dead or in jail? - An independent counsel who investigated possible tax violations by former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Henry Cisneros charged that the Clinton administration thwarted his efforts to get to the truth. - U.S. Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.) is under criminal investigation by the U.S. Justice Department for possible bribery in exchange for promoting business deals in Africa - Federal prosecutors alleged in court documents that Ernest Newton, a former state Democrat Connecticut senator worked with a reputed mobster and his associate to try to stop police raids on businesses and advance their business interests - Clarence Norman Jr., the longtime powerbroker of Brooklyn NY Democrats was found guilty of intentionally soliciting illegal campaign contributions. - A top aide to Jim Black, the Democratic speaker of the state Legislature of North Carolina, resigned amid reports he had received payments from a company hoping for the lottery contract. The .State Board of Elections is investigating Black's campaign finances. The investigation comes after the group Democracy North Carolina said it found evidence that video-[word deleted] operators were funneling money through unsuspecting donors to Black's campaign. - West Virginia.Logan County Clerk Glen Dale "Hound Dog" Adkins admitted to selling his vote for $500 in the 1996 Democratic Party primary, while Perry French Harvey Jr. pleaded guilty to conspiring to bribe voters in last year's Democratic contest - Former Democat Gov. Donald Siegelman of Alabama was charged in a "widespread racketeering conspiracy" that includes accusations he took a bribe from former hospital executive Richard Scrushy for a key state appointment. - Frank Ballance - a former Democrat Rep. from North Carolina was sentenced to four years in federal prison for conspiring to divert taxpayer money to his law firm and family through a charitable organization he helped start. Ballance, was a state senator before being elected to Congress in 2002, also agreed to repay $61,917 and to forfeit $203,000 in a bank escrow account in the name of the John A. Hyman Memorial Foundation. - Five Democratic activists in Wisconsin accused of slashing the tires of vans rented by Republicans on Election Day 2004 are currently on trial - Chuck Chvala, a Former Democrat Wisconsin Senate Majority Leader was sentenced to nine months in jail for felony misconduct in office and illegally funneling campaign contributions. Chvala had reached a plea deal with prosecutors earlier this year, admitting to charges that he directed a state employee to run a political campaign and used an independent expenditure group to funnel campaign contributions to a fellow Democrat. - Brett Pfeffer, a former legislative director to Rep. William Jefferson, D-La., pleaded guilty to aiding and abetting bribery of a public official and conspiracy. - Raymond Reggie, a New Orleans political Democratic consultant and fund-raiser who is Senator Kennedy's brother-in-law was sentenced to a year in prison yesterday after pleading guilty to bank fraud charges.
Oh, please. The one constant we can expect from both parties is corruption. How soon we forget one of the most corrupt president in our history, Bill Clinton. The only difference is that republican candidates usually resign in shame or get punished by the voters and democrats get re-elected. Here's two current scandles with both Pelosi and Feinstein that you failed to mention. http://www.nypost.com/seven/05082007/news/nationalnews/her_an_fran_treat_nationalnews_geoff_earle.htm http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200705/POL20070508a.html Both sides have no shortage of corruption. Both sides spend like drunken liberals. Both sides want bigger government. Both sides won't close the border and regulate immigration. Both sides favor amnesty. There's not much to chose from. The most important issue in the next election is who will take the fight to the Islamic Fascists.
What's wrong Joe? Cat got your tongue? I've got many more if you would like. What's ironic about our discussion is that you will most likely be voting for the most corrupt person running for president in both parties; Hillary. Who is being disingenuous? Or perhaps your just being delusional. What Feinstein has done is far worse then Cunningham who got 10 years in prison. The problem with the media is that it is so overwhelmingly liberal. If a republican had done what Feinstein has done it would be on the news 24 hrs a day. Because she is a democrat, the story is reported and then buried. Diane Feinstein directed $1 billion in appropriations to companies held by her husband: http://thehill.com/david-keene/feinsteins-cardinal-shenanigans-2007-04-30.html http://www.metroactive.com/feinstein/
Actually Steve, when I waded through your tome, I concluded that you are way over-invested in this matter. That inevitably means that more discussion would degenerate into a google-fest of dueling links. not really very productive. If I stated that It's pretty clear that the GOP has the qualitative edge in serious corruption, you would send another barrage of googlemania. Lets leave it at this: I saw a bumper sticker that pretty much sums this up. It said: "Impeachment - It's not just for blowjobs anymore"
You know you've struck a cord with a liberal when they resort to bumper stickers. Very catchy. :) It would be nice if liberals would have some sense of propriety and not publicly display such filth where young children can see it. The fact that you approve is telling.