By the time Barack Obama wraps up this week’s whirlwind tour of Israel, he will undoubtedly have heard all sorts of wise things from all sorts of wise men (and women). As is well known, we have no shortage of them here.
But try as he may, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president of the United States may find it a bit difficult to figure out just who is in charge here, or more to the point, who he’ll be dealing with if he moves into the White House next January.
And so, as a guy who’s spent his share of time among the movers and shakers in Jerusalem, I’d like to offer our distinguished visitor a pointer or two about Israel’s who’s who.
First, be nice to Ehud Olmert. He just might be around in a couple of months. (Who would’ve thought he’d still be around today?) But under no circumstances should Obama give him any kind of envelope, even if all that’s in it is a birthday card. We’re kind of sensitive about such packages right about now.
As for those who’ve smelled blood and are now circling around Olmert, waiting to pounce — the other leaders of his own Kadima party — keep an eye out on Shaul Mofaz. He used to be the military’s chief of staff, which in Israel means he’s got as good a chance as any at running the country, and even if he doesn’t make it to the top, the transportation minister still talks the war talk as good as any.
Then there’s the other Kadima leader who’s turned on Olmert, Tzipi Livni. True, the foreign minister is the most popular politician in Israel, mostly because she’s perceived as being squeaky clean, an honest politician (forgive the oxymoron) in a country fed up with corruption scandals. But the American president-in-waiting ought to think twice before venturing out alone with her onto the balcony of whichever high-rise hotel he’ll be staying at; she is, after all, a former Mossad agent.
When it comes to Benjamin Netanyahu, who would most likely become prime minister if elections were held today, it’s actually quite simple. Obama won’t have to do or say a thing; Bibi will do all the talking.
The same goes for Ehud Barak. The leader of the Labor Party will treat his senatorial visitor to long lectures, although his English is unfortunately not quite as good as the silver-tongued Bibi’s. And he has a tendency to be obscure, especially when he starts off by saying, “Let me make it crystal clear.”
Now as far as how these charming individuals actually make it to the top office in the land, let alone what they do once they are there, Obama ought not be surprised if all the machinations don’t seem to make any sense.
Let’s say that, as expected, Livni wins the Kadima primary in September. She’ll probably keep her party in a national unity government with Barak’s Labor, in order to avoid a general election that Netanyahu stands a pretty good chance of winning. Once they’ve teamed up they’ll then do everything they can to weaken each other; after all, another election could always be right around the corner. But so long as they need to box out Bibi, they’ll stick it out.
If, on the other hand, general elections are indeed called, things will be, well, actually, much the same. Livni, Barak, Bibi and everyone else will go after each other like savages. Then, the minute the elections are over, they’ll sit down and form a coalition government with each other. And, of course, continue to undermine each other.
They’re quite good at it, in fact. Just this past week, Labor supported a no-confidence vote against the governing coalition — which, along with Kadima, it leads. Did Olmert fire them for sabotaging the coalition? Of course not; he’s too weak now, and they know it.
Obama, if he wins the presidency, might find the recently deposed Republican majority resistant to all that change you can believe in. For the next Israeli prime minister, that’s an easy day at the office. More often than not, the head of the Israeli government can hardly govern at all. He spends 99% of the time trying to survive, and the remaining 1% being investigated by the police.
Just a few days in Israel, I imagine, are hardly enough for Obama to make sense of the circus that passes for politics here. Come to think of it, he could spend a whole lot more time here and still not quite figure it all out.
Better, I’d think, that he spend his time on the campaign trail trying to unravel this mystery: If Israeli politics is such a mess, then how is it that the Israeli economy is booming, Israeli culture is thriving and the people here are, generally speaking, pretty damn happy.
Uri Dromi was chief spokesman for the Israeli government under Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres.
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Need I say, better be nice to Mr. Obama. He's likely to be the President of the United States for the next 4 to 8 years. Better, than that, don't assume that he can have the wool pulled over his eyes, like his predecessor, or that American policies can not be radically altered. I can't think of two more different men or remember any time when there was so much widepread desire for real change in America. But, you know, that sort of change could be a very good thing for Israel, too. Most of all, don't do anything between now and November 4 that can't be reversed. Regards - leveymg Washington, DC
Has it occured to anyone that ISRAELIS CAN'T VOTE IN US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS? Long ago one could speak of "I own it, I payed for it"...but I've never heard of "I own it, it payed for me" as a thesis for influence. I wish the FORWARD would discuss more the uneasiness with the habitual welfare recepient's attitude of Israelis, making its needs primary for America. The neocons have so blured the difference betwen US and Israeli interests that America could exhibit an extreme wave of anti-Semitism. In that case, all of Abe Foxman's attempts to intimidate with vocal cord screeches will be like singing to the deaf. We must preempt all that by making a clear demarcation between an American Jew and an Israeli Jew. Ben Gurion's exploitation of guilt over the Holocaust should not become the marking of American Jews with a foreign agent label. I love my native Romania and I love Israel (despite the criminality of both states at various points in history). But my DUTY is to the United States as the nation to which I swore allegiance. Until Jews are allowed to make that clear to their fellow Americans, Jews will be in danger from silent lava flows that could explode in giant plumes almost anywhere in the US. The constant Israeli chatter on Obama's standing with Israel as related to his chances of becoming President of the USA is reckless chutzpah that doesn't realize that an end to the guilt may well mean an end to the gelt. Netanyahu saw that attempting to make Israel a real country economically is impossible. Yet, no Israeli would settle for any limitations on its political independence. So count your blessings and save your bravado for the Iranians; don't bite the hand that may feed you for the next eight years with bloated egos. DO NOT make the US Presidential election your toy. Let Jewish Americans, like all other Americans vote what they think best for their America. You make demands on them on the basis of Jewish unity and then, when they give you advice, you tell them to go back home and write a letter to their Congressman. So don't tell Americans, Jews and Goyim, how to vote on the basis of "Jewish" [eg. Israeli political factions] interests. Cool it and remember: where outrage replaces guilt there's no more gelt. You couldn't survive that so don't push America back into its 1940 frame of mind with utter reckless arrogance.
I don't get it. Dromi writes an inoffensive column intended to be amusing and De Tedorou makes a big fuss. What's all this about Zionist imposed guilt? Why dish Israel's economic achievements? Why dismiss Israel's concerns? If De Tedorou is concerned about another holocaust shouldn't he be asking what will Obama do to prevent Iran from getting the bomb? I'm curious too about his love for and comparison of both Israel and Romania. Didn't the Romanians side with the Nazis?
Well, Daniel, Obama is a small part of it to be sure, but the ensemble hits at Obama and I'm reacting where I think issues come together. I don't think my post is offensive (of course the hypersensitive self pitying might think otherwise) but I am trying to get Israelis to think that nothing is good about Israel's economy if it needs so much US welfare and if it cannot be economically integrated with its neighbors. My standard is simple: mankind has invested an incredible amount and the Jewish Diaspora some of its best Jews there so it's got to turn up a lot result for the investment. Yet all I see is an insolent neoconish "MY PROBLEM WITH NEGROES-- AND YOURS" type attitude towards our next great president. Above all, I don't want chutzpah to trigger an American era of anti-Semitism. Neither the Diaspora Jews nor Israel can afford that. So look at it as an early fire bell...before the fire goes out of control. I only want to see everyone feeling a sense of things moving up again!
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