Jewish Historian Who Predicted Trump’s 2016 Win Says To Expect The Same In 2020

Allan Lichtman Image by Screenshot
An American University professor has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections — and says President Trump will win the next in 2020.
Allan Lichtman, a political historian, told CNN on Wednesday that the only chance for a different outcome is if Democrats were to impeach Trump. Following the release of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, Lichtman said impeachment is the way to go.
“It’s a false dichotomy to say Democrats have a choice between doing what is right and what is constitutional and what is politically right,” he said. “Impeachment is also politically right.”
He also said Democrats have to “grow a spine and do their constitutional duty.”
Professor @AllanLichtman has correctly predicted nine straight presidential elections.
He tells @BrookeBCNN that Trump will win again in 2020 “unless the Democrats grow a spine and do their Constitutional duty, and move into an impeachment inquiry.”https://t.co/hOa1Jlgsdo pic.twitter.com/zv4XAk0ayc
— CNN Newsroom (@CNNnewsroom) May 29, 2019
Using his own system, Lichtman has been able to determine whether the party in the White House will last another term. The 13 “key factors” include incumbency, economic conditions and policy changes. Trump’s party will lose if it has six or more negative factors; right now there are only three.
A scandal would add a fourth, Lichtman, which could trigger other factors, potentially enough to defeat him.
The interview was Lichtman doubling down on the significance of the impeachment process — on Tuesday, he told CNN that “Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020.”
Alyssa Fisher is a writer at the Forward. Email her at [email protected], or follow her on Twitter at @alyssalfisher
The Forward is free to read, but it isn’t free to produce

I hope you appreciated this article. Before you go, I’d like to ask you to please support the Forward.
At a time when other newsrooms are closing or cutting back, the Forward has removed its paywall and invested additional resources to report on the ground from Israel and around the U.S. on the impact of the war, rising antisemitism and polarized discourse.
Readers like you make it all possible. We’ve started our Passover Fundraising Drive, and we need 1,800 readers like you to step up to support the Forward by April 21. Members of the Forward board are even matching the first 1,000 gifts, up to $70,000.
This is a great time to support independent Jewish journalism, because every dollar goes twice as far.
— Rachel Fishman Feddersen, Publisher and CEO
2X match on all Passover gifts!
Most Popular
- 1
News A Jewish Republican and Muslim Democrat are suddenly in a tight race for a special seat in Congress
- 2
Fast Forward The NCAA men’s Final Four has 3 Jewish coaches
- 3
Film & TV What Gal Gadot has said about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
- 4
Fast Forward Cory Booker proclaims, ‘Hineni’ — I am here — 19 hours into anti-Trump Senate speech
In Case You Missed It
-
Fast Forward Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ includes 17% tariffs on Israeli imports, even as Israel cancels tariffs on US goods
-
Fast Forward Hillel CEO says he shares ‘concerns’ over campus deportations, calls for due process
-
Fast Forward Jewish Princeton student accused of assault at protest last year is found not guilty
-
News ‘Qatargate’ and the web of huge scandals rocking Israel, explained
-
Shop the Forward Store
100% of profits support our journalism
Republish This Story
Please read before republishing
We’re happy to make this story available to republish for free, unless it originated with JTA, Haaretz or another publication (as indicated on the article) and as long as you follow our guidelines.
You must comply with the following:
- Credit the Forward
- Retain our pixel
- Preserve our canonical link in Google search
- Add a noindex tag in Google search
See our full guidelines for more information, and this guide for detail about canonical URLs.
To republish, copy the HTML by clicking on the yellow button to the right; it includes our tracking pixel, all paragraph styles and hyperlinks, the author byline and credit to the Forward. It does not include images; to avoid copyright violations, you must add them manually, following our guidelines. Please email us at [email protected], subject line “republish,” with any questions or to let us know what stories you’re picking up.