Analysis: Trump and Netanyahu close ranks. But is a Gaza ceasefire really in reach?

President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sept. 29. Photo by Mehmet Eser/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

By Jacob Kornbluh September 29, 2025

When President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood at the podiums in the White House’s State Dining Room, they presented perfect alignment on ending the war in Gaza. No daylight, no cracks.

“A very big day, a beautiful day,” Trump said, opening the joint press conference, “potentially one of the great days ever in civilization.”

Both leaders said they fully backed a 21-point Gaza ceasefire proposal the White House prepared in consultation with Israel and other nations, and that post-war regional peace was within reach. The plan, they said, would secure the release of all hostages at once, dismantle Hamas as both a military and political force, end the suffering of Israelis and Palestinians alike, and lay the groundwork for lasting peace.

Hamas has yet to weigh in on a plan that would cross one of its red lines: Its disarmament and its removal from power. “Everybody who wants to see an end to the violence and destruction should be united in calling for Hamas to accept the extremely fair proposal,” Trump said. He added that if Hamas rejects or violates the deal, Israel will have his “full backing to do what you would have to do” in Gaza.

It was carefully staged, including Trump’s refusal at the end of their remarks to take questions from the media.

The war, launched on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas massacred close to 1,200 people inside Israel and abducted 251, has been devastating. More than 66,000 Palestinians are dead, including tens of thousands of civilians. Much of Gaza is destroyed, Hamas remains in power and 48 hostages are still captive.

Neither Trump nor Netanyahu can afford to appear divided. For Hamas, even a hint of public tension between the United States and Israel could be leveraged to stall progress. For Netanyahu, signs of capitulation and concessions on core demands could spark revolt among his far-right coalition partners.

Yet unity at the podium doesn’t always mean unity at the table. Their display came after a two-hour meeting and lunch, days of intense talks between Trump’s aides and the Israeli leader, and close coordination with U.S. allies in the region.

Trump has been eager to cast himself as the indispensable dealmaker since returning to office. “My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier,” Trump said at his inauguration.

For that to work, he needs to show progress without making it look like Netanyahu is behind it.

The optics of a reluctant Israel forced to accept compromises may help Trump with Arab leaders and give Netanyahu cover at home to argue his hands were tied. Trump got Netanyahu to apologize to his Qatari counterpart while at the White House for the strike that killed some members of Hamas’ negotiating team in Doha earlier this month. (Netanyahu in the press conference only said he “regretted” the deaths of Qatari civilians in the attack.)

The details 

The proposal President Trump is pushing isn’t entirely new. It closely resembles the three-phase plan former President Joe Biden outlined in April 2024, which called for postwar rebuilding and a long-term regional strategy. Both Israel and Hamas balked at it. A ceasefire-hostage deal signed in January collapsed after just 42 days. Since then, conditions in Gaza have worsened and only one living hostage was returned —  a dual Israeli-American citizen as a gesture to the United States. Hamas has insisted it will free hostages only in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal, demands that Netanyahu has repeatedly refused.

What makes Trump’s plan different is the process and political guarantees. Biden’s version envisioned phased hostage releases and lacked agreement on postwar governance and reconstruction. Trump’s version calls for all hostages to be freed at once within 72 hours in exchange for amnesty for Hamas members who renounce violence and safe passage for those who leave Gaza. It also includes a redevelopment blueprint and a pathway toward Palestinian statehood under a reformed Palestinian Authority backed by Arab and Muslim states.

The White House described the comprehensive plan as a blueprint that would leave Gaza as a “deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.”

Why now?

Several factors explain the timing.

First, Israel is facing growing diplomatic isolation. With Britain, France, Canada, and Australia joining other countries in recognizing Palestinian statehood, Netanyahu has grown more dependent than ever on U.S. backing.

Second, regional stability is at stake. The 12-day war with Iran in June, Israel’s strike in Qatar, and continued missile attacks from Yemen underscored the risk of escalation. U.S. allies — Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates — want to contain the Gaza conflict to move forward with normalization.

Third, politics. Netanyahu’s coalition is fragile. Haredi parties are holding out for a draft exemption law for yeshiva students, while his far-right partners are sharpening their rhetoric ahead of elections next year. Delivering a deal that ends the trauma for so many Israelis could give Netanyahu a badly needed political win.

And then there’s Jared Kushner. Though not formally in the administration, Trump’s son-in-law has reemerged in recent weeks, drafting a Gaza reconstruction plan with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair that Trump embraced. Kushner brings credibility from his work on the Abraham Accords and longstanding ties to Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. As in Trump’s first term, the administration appears to have stopped Israeli annexation plans in favor of broader normalization.

The Biden administration made several secret attempts to build on this foundation, according to a book by Israeli journalist Barak Ravid. The Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7 disrupted these efforts. Netanyahu’s reluctance to engage with the Biden administration on Gaza’s post-war governance further delayed efforts to get back on track.

Netanyahu appears more conciliatory toward Trump than he did Biden. The president has made no secret of his ambitions. Having failed to end the Russia-Ukraine war, he sees Middle East peace as his best chance at a Nobel Prize. “ALL ARE ON BOARD FOR SOMETHING SPECIAL, FIRST TIME EVER. WE WILL GET IT DONE!!!” Trump wrote Sunday in a post on the social media platform he owns, Truth Social.

In his opening statement, Trump gave Netanyahu the embrace he may need to get his coalition on board. He said he respected Netanyahu’s opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state and called him a “warrior” who is putting his own political interests aside to do what is best for the Israeli people. “Israel is lucky to have him,” Trump said about Netanyahu. He added, “I’ve never asked Israel to compromise its security.”

Netanyahu returned the favor. “While you focus at home on making America great again, your leadership abroad is changing the world for the better,” the Israeli leader said.

Tying the knots?

Despite the optimistic optics, major obstacles remain. Hamas has yet to agree to the terms. Trump’s style of broad declarations may not resolve the fine print. Netanyahu, meanwhile, continues to assure Israelis he is committed to the goals he set at the beginning of the war and that he will “finish the job” against Hamas.

There already appears to be a difference between the Trump administration and Netanyahu on the role of the relatively moderate Palestinian Authority.  According to. the plan released by the White House, an interim board “will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza.”

Netanyahu seemed unequivocal in rejecting any such role. He expressed skepticism that the Palestinian Authority could change to Israel’s satisfaction, saying that would be “miraculous.” “Gaza will have a peaceful civilian administration that is run neither by Hamas nor by the Palestinian Authority,” Netanyahu said.

Public skepticism is deep. Israeli support for a Palestinian state is sharply declining, and Palestinians have been generally skeptical about a possible breakthrough under Trump. A Gallup poll released Monday found only one in five Israelis and Palestinians believe lasting peace is possible, while about two-thirds on both sides say it will never happen.

Still, the political incentives are aligning. For Trump, it’s about legacy and leverage. For Netanyahu, it’s about survival — rescuing his country from deepening isolation and his own place in history.

What this means for American Jews

For American Jews, an end to the conflict would bring a sigh of relief. Recent polls show Democratic voters are increasingly sympathetic to Palestinians.  In July, a record 27 Senate Democrats, a majority of the caucus, supported a pair of resolutions introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Jewish Vermont independent and longtime critic of U.S. aid to Israel, calling for the blocking of weapons transfers to Israel.

The rise of Zohran Mamdani, who won the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, is prompting mainstream Democrats with national ambitions to mimic his sharp criticism of Israel. Future candidates could adopt more critical positions in response to public opinion.

Among Republicans, support for Israel remains strong, though younger conservatives have shown more skepticism of Netanyahu’s hardline approach, and some in Trump’s MAGA movement have grown openly critical of Israel.

This shift has placed mainstream Jewish organizations in a difficult position. Groups like the Anti-Defamation League and American Israel Public Affairs Committee have long aligned closely with Israeli governments, but Israel’s growing isolation — and its dependence on Trump — complicate that approach. At the same time, grassroots Jewish movements critical of the Gaza war have gained influence.

A ceasefire in Gaza could temporarily ease some of these tensions, at least for now.