Netanyahu has resisted internal and external pressure to moderate. Can IDF reservists change that?
U.S. and Israeli national security experts weigh in on Netanyahu’s biggest challenge to date
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Knesset on May 23, 2023. Photo by Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Images
By Jacob Kornbluh August 17, 2023
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is grappling with a deep crisis within the Israeli Defense Forces, carrying the potential to affect the country’s security landscape. Despite the upheaval that has plunged Israel into a state of unpredictability in the region, Israeli and U.S. national security experts don’t expect to see immediate intervention by the U.S. administration.
“There is nothing that foreigners can do to ameliorate any problems that may exist or come to exist inside the IDF,” said Elliott Abrams, a veteran Republican foreign policy official and a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C.
In recent weeks, thousands of Israeli air force reservists have stopped reporting for duty and threatened not to show up for training sessions in protest of the package of judicial overhaul measures that would weaken the independence of the Israeli Supreme Court. The Knesset recently passed legislation that blocks the court from reviewing the reasonableness of government decisions and appointments. Netanyahu called it a “minor correction” and offered the opposition a limited window for talks on a compromise. The moves have already sparked persistent street protests throughout 2023 and elicited outrage from Israeli and U.S. officials.
“This challenge is his biggest yet,” said Noam Tibon, a retired Major General and longtime IDF commander who specialized in counterterrorism and homeland security, about Netanyahu’s battles. Describing the air force pilots and special forces as the backbone of the IDF’s military edge – the modest Israeli army has depended on reservists to maintain operational readiness – Tibon said many have simply lost trust in the country’s political leadership. He described it as an “earth-shaking” moment.
Ephraim Sneh, a retired IDF Brigadier General and former deputy defense minister, echoed this sentiment. “The anger is very sincere,” he said. “These are people with high personal qualities but also with values, and they say we cannot serve a dictatorial regime. They say this is not the state that we fought for, and that our parents fought for.”
Why it matters
Throughout its history, the relatively modest Israeli army has relied on reservists to uphold operational preparedness within a hostile region.
The fighter pilots engaged in a commitment of two days each week are the ones assigned to nightly missions for airstrikes in Gaza, Lebanon or Syria. Their unwavering confidence in their commanders and the political leadership endorsing these perilous undertakings is pivotal, said Tibon, who once served as commander of a paratrooper battalion. He pointed to the Russian army’s limited success in invading Ukraine and the number of casualties on the battlefield, attributing it to a lack of enthusiasm from soldiers.
The other component, outlined by Israeli defense officials, is the legal safeguard extended to every soldier within the IDF. It hinges upon international recognition that the Israeli Supreme Court is dedicated to safeguarding human rights and legitimizing counterterrorism strategies and military operations. If the autonomy of the Supreme Court is weakened, it could potentially expose military personnel to legal actions and detentions while abroad.
IDF Chief of Staff Gen. Herzi Halevi and Tomer Bar, the air force chief, have cautioned the government that the unrest could impact Israel’s state of readiness in a possible war with Hezbollah or Iran. Israeli media reported on Wednesday that senior IDF officials said in a closed-door briefing with Knesset members that this is having a far greater effect on Israel’s standing among its enemies than the political instability of five election cycles in recent years.
Netanyahu has attempted to assuage concerns, and reassured his unwavering support for the armed forces. But the crisis seems to be far from over, and the political divisions in the IDF may last longer.
What Washington is doing
While President Joe Biden has publicly conveyed his frustration over the unilateral steps the far-right Israeli government has undertaken in advancing the judicial overhaul proposal, his administration has refrained from taking significant steps to prevent the situation from further deterioration.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s confidante and the cabinet minister tasked to deal with the U.S., is in Washington this week for strategic talks with administration officials. The meetings are part of an effort to advance a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Gen. Mark Milley, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is expected to visit Israel next week.
For some Israelis who are part of the protest movement, Biden’s cautious approach has been fair as he made it clear it would undermine the democratic nature of Israel.
“The arsenal is quite extensive if the U.S. president decides to lean on Israel,” said Itamar Rabinovich, former Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. during the Clinton administration. He said that while a majority of the American Jewish establishment wouldn’t mind seeing that, it’s hard to see Biden changing course in an election year.
Dov Zakheim, former undersecretary of defense in the administration of George W. Bush, questioned whether any additional measures would even be effective. He pointed to Netanyahu’s extremist and ideological partners who would resist any pressure. But Zakheim said even Netanyahu himself hasn’t shown any indication he is willing to moderate for political survival.
“He doesn’t give a sh*t,” Sneh said when asked whether there’s anything that could change the mindset of Netanyahu, who was once dubbed “Mr. Security.”
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank, said the Israeli government would be wise to take the warning seriously and “refocus” on tackling the security threats. But he said it’s also “long past the time” for the Biden administration to “provide Jerusalem with everything it needs militarily and politically to counter these threats” and become tougher with Iran.
Tibon said he expects the complete backing of the American Jewish community in taking a stand for Israel as a liberal democracy, and to lobby the White House to make it clear to Netanyahu that there will be consequences to the U.S.-Israel alliance if he moves forward with the judicial overhaul plan. Tibon accused the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) of giving cover to Netanyahu and cooperating with him to defy the pressure.
What if Israel is attacked
Notwithstanding the current situation, U.S. and Israeli officials expect the IDF to successfully counter any attempt by Iranian proxies to ignite a conflict in the region.
Despite any grievances people might have with the government, the threat to their homeland would motivate Israelis, including reservists, to actively defend and protect their homeland, they say.
Zakheim, one of the top Republican national security officials who supported Biden in 2020, said Israel should be wary about relying on additional U.S. assistance and resupplies given the war in Ukraine and its rift with China.
“There’s only one person who can stop the bleeding,” Tibon said. To end the crisis, he said, Netanyahu must commit to respecting the Supreme Court’s rulings and halt changes to the judiciary until an understanding is reached with the opposition with broad public support.
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