Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is not imminent
Despite recent attention to a U.S.-brokered deal, there has been no movement on the most significant issue: the Palestinians
Palestinian ambassador to Saudi Arabia Bassem al-Agha wears a scarf depicting Palestinian and Saudi leaders, during a condolences reception for slain Al-Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh at the Palestinian embassy in the Saudi capital Riyadh on May 17, 2022. The scarf reads in Arabic “Jerusalem is the capital of Palestine” and depicts (L to R) Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas and his predecessor Yasser Arafat, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, the kingdom’s founding King Abdulaziz ibn Saud, and current leader, King Salman bin Abdulaziz. Photo by Fayez Nureldine/AFP via Getty Images
Noa Shusterman Dvir August 10, 2023
For those of us closely following Middle East news, it might seem as if an Israeli-Saudi Arabia normalization deal is almost within reach. After President Joe Biden confirmed his team was probing into the issue as part of a U.S.-Saudi deal, The New York Times senior-columnist Tom Friedman repeated the news and highlighted the importance of a significant Palestinian component.
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal triumphantly announced that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia “agree to broad terms” for the deal, only to walk it back hours later after the White House spokesperson clarified that the framework was not agreed upon, but is being discussed (The Journal’s new headline now reads that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia now “agree on a path to normalize”). Reading carefully, you probably noticed that this statement only applies to the U.S.-Saudi part of the negotiations, and the Israeli-Palestinian segment was yet to be discussed.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, downplayed the Palestinian issue and told Bloomberg Israel will need to “check the boxes,” alluding that Israel will be asked to make only a few statements and some minor actions vis-à-vis the Palestinians to cement relations for the first time with one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East.
It might be appealing to succumb to the fantasy of an “easy” Israeli-Saudi normalization process that does not require Israel to make territorial concessions to the Palestinians. It’s a fantasy.
Regional strategy
An Israeli-Saudi normalization deal, if achieved, will be only a byproduct of a U.S.-Saudi agreement, that on the face of it, doesn’t include Israel. From an American standpoint, an agreement with Saudi Arabia is a way to reduce oil prices, counter growing Chinese influence in the Middle East, and ensure the dominance of the dollar in oil trade (which is currently being challenged). The Saudis see this as an opportunity to get security assurances, sophisticated weapons and promote a civilian nuclear plan — all targeted to counter Iran and improve their military capacity.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is not willing to sit back and allow Iran to continue working its way toward nuclear capabilities and engaging in malign activity in his neighborhood. Saudi Arabia needs U.S. security assurances as a vital national security interest, as well as Israeli military cooperation. The real question is whether this mandates full Israeli-Saudi normalization — and significant concessions on Israel’s part toward the Palestinians — or can be reached in a narrow military and security cooperation. At the moment, it seems MBS is willing to settle for the latter.
What Biden wants
Israel’s involvement is required for two main reasons. First, this will strengthen the anti-Iranian military coalition while ensuring U.S. interests in the Middle East and allowing the U.S. less engagement without abandoning its allies or risking regional stability. Second, due to the high security sensitivity of the deal with Saudi Arabia and the implications of the U.S. fulfilling the Saudi demands, which will also affect Israel’s national security and the allies’ qualitative military edge, Biden requires the support of Israel to pass the deal by Congress.
Aside from the Republicans, who tend to be adamantly pro-Israel, Biden’s own Democratic Party, who have been growing more intolerant of Israel’s policies toward the Palestinians, will demand a drastic change in Israel’s current trajectory before they sign off on any deal with Saudi Arabia.
As a longtime supporter of Israel, Biden himself is distraught by the growing number of settlers and settlements in the depths of the West Bank territory (and outside the traditional Gush Etzion “bloc” outside of Jerusalem), the rising cases of settlers’ violence and the fragile status of the Palestinian Authority, which is further exacerbated by Israeli economic policies and sanctions.
What MBS wants
To fully normalize with Israel, MBS will also need a significant Palestinian component. He is in the midst of building his reputation as the next Saudi king, and rebuilding the reputation of the Saudi Kingdom as the leader of the Arab and Muslim world. Even if he does not personally care much for the Palestinian issue, as the custodian of the two holiest sites in Islam (Mecca and Medina), he cannot overlook the tensions embroiling the third-holiest place — al-Aqsa in Jerusalem. Furthermore, the issue of Palestine is often used by Iran, Saudi’s biggest enemy, who claim to protect the Palestinian people.
Therefore, MBS needs to fence off public and religious criticism, negate Iran from its leadership role on the Palestinian issue and show the Arab world that Saudi Arabia is still the regional hegemon. He needs to receive more from Israel on the Palestinian issue than the UAE received for the Abraham Accords — a four-year commitment that Israel won’t annex the West Bank, de jure.
In addition to a necessary Israeli concession toward the Palestinians, MBS finds it difficult to normalize with Israel with its current government. While newspapers in Israel and the U.S. are covering the rosy prospect of normalization, on the Arab News print edition is a picture of “the smirking assassin” Elisha Yered — a settler accused of killing a Palestinian in Burqa on Aug. 4. The same paper also features an article about Israel’s growing “Jewish terrorism problem,” citing the support Jewish terrorists receive from high-level ministers in Netanyahu’s coalition like Itamar Ben-Gvir.
MBS needs Israel to shift its attitude toward the Palestinians and toward Arabs with Israeli citizenship (Israel’s Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich recently refused to transfer funds to Arab municipalities and withheld funds for higher education in East Jerusalem until Netanyahu forced him to give in). For that shift to happen, Israel’s coalition needs to change.
Israeli coalitions
This is where the issue becomes even more complicated. The current government is a result of the fifth election in three years, and it coalesced mainly as a negation of the previous Bennet-Lapid government that included the Arab party Raam. Under the current political circumstances, it’s hard to imagine a party in the coalition resigning and leading to the government’s collapse, especially considering that the judicial overhaul pushed many votes from the right to the center-left. Even if one of the coalition parties resigns and Netanyahu tries to reshuffle the government, the opposition will not easily join him.
But this is not a lost cause. If the leaders of the opposition, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, had solid assurances that Netanyahu will receive his accolades for making peace with Saudi Arabia and leave office, they might be willing to consider joining the coalition. They would also need to ensure that the judicial overhaul is stopped and reversed, Israel’s policy in the West Bank is changed, and the current budgetary preferences toward the ultra-Orthodox and the settlements is cut.
This could be a pivotal moment for liberal Israelis. The possibility of cementing relations with Saudi Arabia and opening Israel to the majority of the Muslim world, safeguarding Israeli democracy, broadening the regional military cooperation and leading a way toward peace with the Palestinians would be transformational for the country. But it is, unfortunately, far from a sure thing.
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