What Odds Amos Oz for Nobel Prize?

So far Israel has had eight Nobel winners, S. Y. Agnon (1966) being the only recipient in the literature category. Yet, according to the Guardian, bets are being placed on Amos Oz as this year’s top choice for the award.
Amos Oz, born Amos Klausner, is conveniently turning 70 this year and this would be a fine birthday present. The author of over a dozen books, both fiction and non-fiction, he’s also known for his pragmatic and thoughtful doveish politics.
His recent personal memoir A Tale of Love and Darkness (2003) received major international acclaim (including notes here and here in this paper), and is probably the reason why he’s on the Nobel radar. His political involvement couldn’t have hurt either — a number of the recent literature awardees had a strong political bent: Dorris Lessing, Orhan Pamuk, Harold Pinter, Elfriede Jelinek.
Philip Roth is also worth a flutter. He’s on the list as a potential runner-up. He’s been overdue for Nobel for at least a decade already and his new book “The Humbling” is due out just in time for the awards ceremony.