New survey: Democratic voters less inclined to support politicians opposing a cease-fire
President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event Jan. 8. Photo by Sean Rayford/Getty Images
By Jacob Kornbluh January 12, 2024
A new poll indicates that politicians’ responses to the war in Gaza, which has caused more than 22,000 Palestinian deaths, could influence voters in the 2024 elections.
A survey by the Arab American Institute of 1,000 likely American voters showed that 51% — including 61% of Democrats — are more inclined to support a member of Congress who backs a permanent cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war. And a majority of Democrats and independents, 54%, and young voters, 52%, said they were less likely to support a politician who opposes a cease-fire.
Non-white likely voters were more than twice as likely to say they would be more inclined, 56%, rather than less inclined, 22%, to support a member of Congress who favors a cease-fire.
The pollster, James Zogby, an activist in Arab American affairs and AAI’s president, said that young voters and people of color represent key constituencies within the Democratic party that it neglects at its risk.
“These demographics are essential for Democratic victories,” he said.
The Middle East conflict, however, is in flux, and may no longer be a top news story in the weeks before Election Day in November — though presidential and state primaries begin months earlier. And experts have noted how foreign policy does not usually drive voters’ choices.
The web-based AAI poll, conducted Jan. 4 and 5, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
A recent poll with a larger sample of 1,637 voters, commissioned for the Democratic Majority for Israel, indicated that 68% wouldn’t change their vote for Biden because of the way he is handling the war. Only 15% said they were less likely to support Biden due to his support for Israel. The DMFI poll also showed that 44% of American Jews are more likely to vote for Biden because he backs Israel.
Calls for a cease-fire
On Capitol Hill, momentum to protect Palestinians mounts.
At least 65 congressional Democrats have called for a cease-fire or cessation of hostilities. Rep. David Trone of Maryland — running in the primary for retiring Sen. Ben Cardin’s seat — is the most recent Democrat to join the list. Trone has been a “minyan” member of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a category requiring a minimum annual $100,000 donation.
A major pro-Palestinian advocacy group, the US Campaign for Palestinian Rights, recently launched a political arm that will grade members of Congress on a scorecard, and donate to and mobilize voters for candidates it supports.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza began shortly after Oct. 7, when Hamas terrorists from Gaza killed 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped 240 — more than 100 of whom are still held captive. Israel’s subsequent offensive in Gaza has prompted accusations of genocide — on Friday it defended itself in the world court against these charges, which it calls outlandish and hypocritical.
The Biden administration has thus far resisted calls to pressure Israel to end the war. “Hamas could have ended this on Oct. 8 — by not hiding behind civilians, by putting down its weapons, by surrendering, by releasing the hostages,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on his recent trip to Israel earlier this week. “This could end tomorrow if Hamas makes those decisions.”
A group of 30 House members sent a letter to Blinken applauding his stance “against calls for a one-sided ceasefire.”
The Arab American Institute poll, commissioned with Rainbow PUSH, an international human and civil rights organization founded by Rev. Jesse Jackson, showed that 4 in 10 Americans want U.S. policy to balance “between Israeli and Palestinian needs.” In the three months since the conflict started, sympathy for Palestinians has risen, particularly among Democrats, younger Americans and people of color.
The findings were published Friday at the start of an “emergency summit for Gaza,” a two-day conference in Chicago hosted by PUSH. Speakers include several progressive House members, including Rep. Jamaal Bowman of New York; as well as Cornel West, a third-party presidential candidate; and Peter Beinart, the editor of Jewish Currents.
Other polls
Other recent surveys indicate that Biden’s strong support for Israel could negatively impact his reelection bid.
In a USA Today/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll of 1,000 likely voters in this month’s New Hampshire primary, 49% of younger voters said Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war makes them less likely to vote for him in the fall. (Biden is not on the ballot in the state’s Jan. 23 primary.) A Quinnipiac poll of 1,680 Pennsylvania registered voters showed that 58% of Democrats disapproved of Israel’s response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.
An Arab American Institute survey of 500 Arab American voters released in October found that 17% would vote for Biden, compared to 59% in 2020.
Responding to a group of protesters, chanting “cease-fire now,” at his reelection kickoff speech in Charleston, South Carolina, on Monday, Biden said that he’s “been quietly working with the Israeli government to get them to reduce and significantly get out of Gaza, using all that I can to do that.”
This post has been updated to include results from a recent poll with a larger sample of respondents.
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