Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and war cabinet minister Benny Gantz on Oct. 28, 2023.

By Jacob Kornbluh June 9, 2024

The Israeli government and the Biden administration on Sunday lost a key moderating and unifying figure with the resignation of senior war cabinet minister Benny Gantz. This development could complicate the Biden administration’s efforts to broker a possible hostage-and-ceasefire deal, and might also lead to early elections in Israel later this year.

Gantz, who turned 65 on Sunday, joined the cabinet days after the Oct. 7 attack to project unity in the war against Hamas. But after eight months of political jockeying with Netanyahu, Gantz bolted the government, accusing the prime minister of mismanaging the war effort for political interests to cater to his far-right partners. 

“Netanyahu prevents us from moving forward to a real victory,” Gantz said in a televised address. 

Netanyahu, in response, called on Gantz to reconsider his resignation and said the door remained open for other centrist and consensus figures to join the cabinet. 

Writing on the wall

Historically, the turnover of senior cabinet ministers in Netanyahu’s government has been notably high, with most of his defense ministers resigning in protest since his first term in 1996.

Gantz, a former head of the Israel Defense Forces, was slated to become prime minister under a power-sharing agreement with Netanyahu in 2021, but Netanyahu reneged and called another election. Gantz later joined Netanyahu’s government in the aftermath of the Hamas attack, citing a sense of patriotism. Gantz maintained a close relationship with Biden administration officials and congressional leaders. Some experts believe he would be the leading candidate for prime minister in a post-war, post-Netanyahu Israel.

However, similar to past experiences, Gantz found himself marginalized and unable to exert significant influence over major decisions. 

In his announcement Sunday, which was postponed for 24 hours after the successful rescue mission of four Israeli hostages, Gantz said that although he managed to prevent reckless decision-making, the prime minister’s hesitation to extend the mandate for negotiators on a hostage deal and refusal to discuss a post-war plan led to a stalemate in a conflict he believes is likely to continue for years.

Will Netanyahu change? 

Gantz’s departure will heighten U.S. and international pressure on Netanyahu. 

“The government is losing the protective shield that Gantz provided,” said Dan Arbell, a scholar-in-residence at the Center for Israel Studies at American University. “It will put it in a position of being greatly scrutinized for missteps and miscalculations and increase the possibility of international actions.” 

But it could also boost Netanyahu’s standing among his right-wing base. 

The government still maintains a 64-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset ensuring its stability. It will only strengthen the position of far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich in negotiations over a hostage exchange deal and a possible ceasefire in Gaza. 

Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are opposed to Israeli concessions that result in the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and that include a commitment to end the war. Saturday’s rescue mission boosted their stance that increasing military pressure on Hamas is the only way to secure the release of the hostages still held by Hamas.

The far-right ministers will likely also use their leverage to push for aggressive actions against the Palestinian Authority in the occupied West Bank, and demand a voice on the war cabinet. 

Noga Tarnopolsky, an Israeli-based journalist covering the developments in the region, said one should expect the government to “take a sharp right turn” in the foreseeable future. “We are entering even more volatile days,” she said. 

However, catering to their demands could further isolate Netanyahu on the world stage amid escalating tensions with Hezbollah and Iran, and could intensify the anti-government protests within Israel demanding his resignation. 

To balance that, Netanyahu could disband the war cabinet and rely more heavily on consultations with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and close adviser Ron Dermer, who are considered more moderate. 

Arbell, a 25-year veteran of the Israeli foreign service, said that on urgent policy matters, such as the fighting in Gaza or potential developments in the north, the Biden administration will collaborate with these ministers. However, he said, “They will now have one less key person to engage with.” 

Based on prior political developments, Netanyahu — Israel’s longest-tenured prime minister, having served for more than 17 years as the country’s leader — will prioritize moves that will preserve his power and avoid early elections.

However, his political future is not solely in Netanyahu’s hands.

Before Oct. 7, Netanyahu’s corruption trial and aggressive judicial overhaul push had fueled public anger. The Gaza war and the hostage crisis have only intensified exasperation with him. Many Israelis hold him at least partially responsible for the security lapses that made it easier for Hamas to attack southern Israel. 

Lack of progress, a unified opposition, and some Likud members being alarmed by the actions of a right-wing government could lead to new elections in the fall or early next year.

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